Posted by BW Actual on Nov 1st 2022
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Iran
- The EU is reportedly considering designating Iran's Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist group, in response to their ultimatum ordering protesters to clear the streets.
- It sounds like whatever slow progress the EU and U.S. were making toward a renewed nuclear deal with Iran has now slowed to a halt too: the EU and U.S. are clearly loath to negotiate with a regime that's brutally suppressing protests.
- Iran is planning to hold public trials for up to 2,000 protesters detained during recent demonstrations. Those trials are likely to further alienate Iran from Western countries who are already turned off by the government's response to protests.
- Russia said it couldn't guarantee the safety of ships exporting grain through the Black Sea corridor set up under an agreement Russia has since suspended.
- At least 12 grain ships still sailed through that corridor without incident yesterday, but they were authorized before Russia suspended the agreement and it's not clear whether Russia will challenge new shipments: it has already called ship traffic in the corridor "unacceptable".
- Separately, three ex-Afghan generals told the AP that Russia is actively recruiting U.S.-trained Afghan special forces soldiers who fled to Iran after the Taliban took over to fight in Ukraine, offering them $1,500 per month and safe haven for them and their families.
- The safe haven component is probably particularly appealing, given that many of those who fled to Iran fear the Taliban would kill them if they were deported back to Afghanistan. One ex-general said: "They don’t want to go fight — but they have no choice."
- A NYT analysis showed that the value of goods Russia exports actually rose after it invaded Ukraine, with countries like India, China, and Turkey buying substantially more from Russia than they did before the war.
- Those increases counteracted decreases in purchases by the UK, U.S., and their allies.
- The percentages in the infographic below show the change in Russian export value vs. before the war (the width of each arrow is proportional to the magnitude of export value).
Other News
- Eurozone year-over-year inflation for October was a record 10.7%, and over half of the 19 countries that use the Euro recorded double-digit annual inflation. Economists worry about a simultaneous slowdown in growth and say a Eurozone recession seems near certain.
- Brazil's election loser - and incumbent president - Jair Bolsonaro hasn't conceded yet but plans to address the country today. His critics fear he's going to challenge the results - even though the poll was largely considered fair and credible - and incite his followers to allege fraud.