Middle East

• Hamas commemorated the one-year anniversary of its surprise attacks on Israel by firing a rocket at Tel Aviv for the first time in two months. Israel responded by firing at the suspected rocket launch site in Gaza.
• Yemen's Houthis joined in the anniversary barrage, launching two missiles of their own at central Israel. Israel easily intercepted them.
• Hezbollah also continued to fire at Israel yesterday, and Israel continued to fire back. Israel's army said it struck 120 Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon yesterday as it sent more ground troops across the border.
• Separately, Israel targeted and killed another senior Hezbollah leader - Suhail Hussein Husseini, who commanded the group's headquarters and helped receive and distribute its weapons - in Beirut.

Ukraine and Russia

• Russia struck Ukraine's Starokostiantyniv air base with a hypersonic missile yesterday.
• Ukraine's military usually doesn't acknowledge successful Russian strikes on its bases, but it chose to disclose this one for some reason. Russia believes Starokostiantyniv hosts some of Ukraine's F-16s. I don't know if that's true, but if it is, Ukraine may feel compelled to disclose nearby Russian strikes that jeopardize the jets.
• Meanwhile, a Russian court convicted a 72-year-old U.S. citizen, Stephen James Hubbard, on charges of serving as a mercenary for Ukraine and sentenced him to almost seven years imprisonment.
• Hubbard's sister says he was working as an English teacher in Ukraine and claims Russian forces "kidnapped" him in April 2022 when they captured the town of Izium where he was working. Either way, the fact that he waited two years for trial gives me the impression that Russia views him as a pawn it can trade in a future prisoner exchange.

U.S. Election Meddling

• U.S. intelligence officials warned that Russia, Iran, China, and several other anti-allies are all plotting covert influence campaigns surrounding the Nov. 5 election.
• According to U.S. officials speaking to the NYT, Iran's campaign focuses on the presidential election in support of VP Harris, while Russia's also targets the presidential election but favors ex-Pres. Trump.
• Meanwhile, China, Russia, and others (including Cuba) are opportunistically meddling in congressional races in ways that could sway outcomes for their respective pet causes: e.g., Russia is interfering on behalf of candidates of either party who are skeptical of aid for Ukraine, and China is covertly maligning candidates on either side that support Taiwan.

Other News

• Tunisia's Pres. Kais Saied won a landslide victory in yesterday's election, but that was no surprise: he imprisoned his most likely challenger - as well as other critics - and overhauled electoral institutions to defer to himself. Only 29% of eligible voters bothered to cast a vote.