Tomorrow is Pres. Trump's deadline for new bilateral trade deals to avoid stiff new tariffs that will be imposed on trading partners that haven't yet struck a deal - i.e., all except for the UK, China*, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Japan, the EU, and now South Korea (listed in the order in which deals were announced; *China's agreement only paused new tariffs until Aug. 12, though trade officials are negotiating an extension of the pause).

Yale's Budget Lab estimated that the average effective U.S. tariff rate across all global imports will rise to 18.4% - the highest since 1933 - and predicted a resulting 1.8% increase in U.S. consumer prices.

Trump also announced new punitive tariffs on Brazil and India. Brazil's U.S. tariffs will rise from 10% to a hefty 50% as punishment for the left-wing government's policies, which Trump says pose an "extraordinary threat" to security. Similarly, India faces new U.S. tariffs of 25% - along with another unspecified "penalty" - for continuing to import Russian oil and arms.

Trump additionally declared that a new 50% tariff on certain imported copper products - but excluding refined copper - will go into effect tomorrow. Copper prices fell on the news, since markets had expected much broader levies. Instead, tomorrow's new tariffs will exclude refined copper as well as copper ores, concentrates, and cathodes.

In other economic news, the Federal Reserve resolved yesterday to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.25-4.50%, despite pressure from Trump to lower rates. For the first time in over 30 years, two of the Fed's 11 rate-setters dissented from the majority.

Canada's Prime Minister Carney said that his country plans to join France and the UK in recognizing Palestinian statehood at the UN General Assembly in September.

Like the UK's similar announcement earlier this week, Canada's proposed recognition is tied to certain conditions. But unlike the UK's recognition plan - which is negatively conditional on Israel failing to meet specific conditions like ending the war - Canada's recognition depends on the Palestinian Authority making positive commitments to reform, including by holding elections that exclude Hamas in 2026.

Carney's announcement could have a knock-on effect on U.S.-Canada trade: Pres. Trump said that Canada's support for Palestinian statehood makes it "very hard" to grant Canada a better trade deal than the 35% tariffs slated to go into effect tomorrow on goods not covered by the USMCA.

Separately, three Arab countries - Egypt, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia - joined 14 other nations in signing a declaration calling on Hamas to " end its rule in Gaza and hand over its weapons to the Palestinian Authority." It was the first time that Arab states have condemned Hamas and advocated for its removal from power.

Early reports suggest that yesterday's powerful earthquake in Russia - and the tsunami it triggered - caused relatively minimal damage for its magnitude. Evacuations largely went smoothly, and tsunami warnings all around the Pacific gradually receded.

Ukraine's legislature, the Rada, approved Pres. Zelensky's new anti-corruption bill that effectively replaces the contentious one whose passage triggered protests earlier this month.

Myanmar's junta finally ended the state of emergency it imposed over four years ago when it seized power. The generals are likely feeling confident after China helped nudge the rebels they were fighting to agree to truces.

The junta's diplomatic prospects have improved lately, too. It's reportedly in talks with the U.S. to trade access to Myanmar's rare-earth minerals for U.S. diplomatic recognition.