Coming Up This Week

• Today is the first anniversary of Hamas's attacks that dragged Israel into direct conflict on three fronts. One year later, 101 hostages remain captive in Gaza (although dozens could be dead) and Hamas health authorities say 41,000 Gazans have died.
• Mozambique votes in a general election on Wednesday. Daniel Chapo of the ruling Frelimo party is expected to win the presidency on promises to bring peace to Cabo Delgado in the gas-rich north - though he doesn't have a clear plan for doing that.
• Nobel prizes will be announced this week, starting with the Nobel for Medicine today. The Nobel Peace Prize could be awarded on Friday - or it could be withheld, as it was 19 other times when the world had more war than peace.
• Pres. Zelensky will present 50 world leaders - including Pres. Biden - with his plan for "clear, concrete steps towards a just end of the war" during a summit in Germany on Saturday.

Commodity Prices

• Aluminum: $2,653/ton
• Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $25,100/ton
• Cobalt: $24,300/ton
• Copper: $9,944/ton
• Gold: $2,653/toz
• Lead: $2,150/ton
• Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.82/MMbtu
• WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $75.44/barrel
• Zinc: $3,166/ton

Middle East

• Israel continued its airstrikes on Lebanon over the weekend, and Hezbollah fired rockets back. Two Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa, marking the first direct strikes to Israel's third-largest city, and five more penetrated Israel's usually-effective air defenses to reach Tiberias.
• Israeli forces also launched new ground operations in the Jabaliya neighborhood of north Gaza - an area that Long War Journal points out has already been cleared three times over the past year...only for Hamas to creep back in after Israeli troops leave.
• Meanwhile on Israel's third front - its unstable detente with Iran - Pres. Netanyahu is considering "other alternatives" to a direct strike on Iranian oil assets. That comforted oil markets, which had feared a direct strike taking Iranian oil supplies offline.

Yemen

• The U.S. struck 15 Houthi targets in Yemen, including (according to Houthi-run news) an airport. The Pentagon said it targeted "offensive military capabilities" the Houthis are using to attack Red Sea shipping.

China

• Beijing's new economic stimulus measures seem to be helping revive a stagnant real estate sector: China's national home sales rose significantly over the past week in response to interest rate cuts.

DRC

• After a brief delay, DRC began rolling out mpox vaccines in North and South Kivu over the weekend. The vaccination drive will continue to Tshopo, Equateur, Sud Ubangi, and Sankuru in the coming days; however, the WHO has warned that donors will need to send more doses to innoculate the rest of the country.

Mexico

• Gangs assassinated the mayor of of Chilpancingo - the capital of violent Guerrero state - just days after he took office.
• Mexico's new Pres. Sheinbaum has promised to improve coordination against gang violence in the country's hot spots like Guerrero. It won't be easy.

Other News

• Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) separatists blew up a tanker near Karachi's international airport in an attack on Chinese engineers and investors affiliated with the Port Qasim Electric Power Company.
• BLA separatists detest China's support for infrastructure projects that help Islamabad solidify its control of the regions the BLA wants to carve out for an independent Balochistan.