BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Sep 24th 2025

Ukraine

Pres. Trump met with Pres. Zelensky on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly yesterday, and afterwards said his views on the Ukraine war had shifted as his understanding of the military and economic situation improved. He wrote on Truth Social that he now believes Zelensky is in a position - with Europe's help - to "fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form."
That's a stark reversal from just last month, when Trump hinted ahead of his Alaska summit with Pres. Putin that Ukraine might need to give up some of its territory to seal a peace deal.
Some analysts suggested Europe's reinforced support for Zelensky may have helped convince Trump that Ukraine isn't fighting a lost cause, while others speculated that Trump may be seeking a graceful way to back out of his pledge to end the war quickly now that peace is proving elusive.

Russia

Pres. Trump told reporters he agreed with Poland's Foreign Minister that NATO planes are entitled to shoot down Russian military aircraft that enter NATO airspace - though Trump demurred when asked if the U.S. would support its allies' actions in such cases, saying it "depends on the circumstances."
On a related note, authorities in Denmark and Norway reported drone incursions similar to those that have been pestering countries on NATO's eastern flank recently, and closed both capital cities' main airports overnight as a precaution.
Neither country's officials explicitly blamed Russia for the incursions, but both insinuated that they strongly suspect Moscow.

Guinea

Partial results from this weekend's referendum showed overwhelming support for the junta's new, slightly modified constitution, with 90.6% of voters approving the new framework.
The results were partial in more ways than one. First, only ~90% of the votes cast have been counted so far. But more critically, the opposition boycotted the poll, which it sees as another power grab by the ruling junta. They're right: the newly-approved constitution opens the door for junta leader Mamady Doumbouya to run for president in the election currently slated for December, and so far all signs suggest he's preparing to run.

Gaza

Qatar's Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani, vocally criticized Israel's Sep. 9 strike on gathered Hamas leaders in Doha as a "treacherous attack" that "undermines any diplomatic efforts" Qatar has been making towards ending the war in Gaza.
Separate recent reports suggest Qatar is demanding - or perhaps more accurately, fishing for - Israel's apology for the Sep. 9 strike, which killed a Qatari guard in addition to several mid-level Hamas figures.
But Qatar hasn't threatened to walk away from its mediating role, and even its demand for Israeli contrition was softened by language allowing Israel to apologize only for accidentally killing a Qatari - and not the bigger offense of violating a mediating country's sovereignty with a lethal strike.

Central African Republic (CAR)

The Financial Times scored a rare interview with CAR's president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, in which Touadéra defended his decision to hire Russia's Wagner Group to suppress rebels after fiery elections in 2020: "The day my country was in trouble, I looked for my friends, but only a few came...I called France and I called the Europeans, but only Rwanda and Russia said, ‘We can help you defend your democracy and your people.'"
Analysts say Wagner stuck around after its post-election mandate ended, and now holds vast commercial interests in CAR. Touadéra also defended trading his country's minerals for security help, and said he hoped to do more such deals. He listed off mineral and infrastructure opportunities that were open for bidding, and stated that "any country that wants to collaborate with us is welcome."
Touadéra's recent fundraising roadshows suggest he's serious about diversifying CAR's investor base, but it's unclear how serious the potential collaborators he's flirting with are about investing.
Touadéra is up for reelection in December - if security conditions are good enough to hold an election, which is a big if. He's allowed to run again because he conveniently changed the constitution to eliminate term limits (and replaced the head of the Constitutional Court who ruled the amendment illegal), and now says he intends to "carry on" as president for as long as voters will have him.