BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Feb 12th 2025

Gaza

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered his troops to reinforce positions in and around Gaza, and warned that "intense fighting" will resume if Hamas doesn't continue to release hostages on the schedule agreed upon in their fragile ceasefire deal.
Hamas has paused hostage releases indefinitely because it claims - reportedly accurately, though some Israeli military officials publicly deny it while others privately confirm it - that Israeli troops failed to deliver thousands of promised tents to Gaza.
Mediators are rushing to find a compromise before the next hostage release deadline of noon local time Saturday.

Resettling Gazans

Jordan's King Abdullah II met Pres. Trump in the White House to discuss Trump's ideas for resettling Gazans in other countries. Trump wants Jordan and Egypt to take in some of the two million Palestinians who would be relocated from Gaza under his controversial proposal for the U.S. to "take" Gaza, and is threatening to suspend U.S. aid if they don't.
It's a tricky position for King Abdullah: Jordan already hosts over 2.4 million Palestinian refugees - including Abdullah's wife, Queen Rania, and one in five Jordanian residents overall - and would struggle to integrate more. Moreover, Abdullah and other Arab leaders are vehemently opposed to further displacement of Palestinians, and Abdullah's own lawmakers have introduced a proposal to prevent him from acquiescing to a plan like this.
On the other hand, Jordan would also struggle to make up for the $17 billion budget gap (representing 12% of government revenues) currently covered by U.S. aid that Trump is threatening to withhold if Jordan doesn't accept more Palestinians.
Abdullah offered Trump a small concession during their meeting: he said Jordan could acept 2,000 of the estimated 5,000 Gazan children who are critically ill.

Sudan

Sudan's armed forces (SAF) have been making slow gains north along the Blue Nile towards Khartoum, and the army could soon try to recapture the capital from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who have controlled Khartoum since early in the war.
The RSF is overstretched in Darfur, but it turned its attention back eastward when the SAF retook Wad Madani last month, and has mounted a more viscious defense in the skirmishes since. Both sides reportedly killed civilians in recent weeks, and they'll likely fight even more ferociously - and with even less regard for civilian safety - over Khartoum.
The UAE - which backs and arms the RSF - proposed a ceasefire during Ramadan - which begins Feb. 28 - but the SAF is happy to continue gaining ground, and rejected the truce.

Russia and Ukraine

Russia freed U.S. citizen Marc Fogel, who was arrested in 2021 on drug charges, in a deal the Trump administration negotiated.
It's not clear what Russia received in this "exchange," but Pres. Trump hinted that Fogel's release "could be a big, important part of getting the war over with Ukraine."
Trump also confirmed that Russia plans to release another detained U.S. citizen imminently - perhaps Stephen Hubbard or Ksenia Karelina.

DRC

M23 rebels disregarded African leaders' calls for a ceasefire and resumed their attacks on Congolese army positions near Ihusi in South Kivu yesterday.
The M23's next apparent target is Kavumu airport, which DRC's air force uses as a transit and resupply hub, followed by the South Kivu capital of Bukavu. Bukavu expects an imminent attack. Businesses are closed and many residents have fled.

Sahel

Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger signed memorandums commissioning a feasibility study update and other measures to accelerate progress on their plan to build a ~$10 billion+ Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline to bring Nigerian liquefied natural gas to Europe.
It will still take years to decades to complete the project, which was first announced in 2009 but has made no real progress since.