Posted by BW Actual on Dec 20th 2023
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
DRC
- Congo-Kinshasa is going to the polls today, despite concerns that it's not fully prepared to hold an election.
- That lack of preparation is fueling fears of violent clashes over the fairness of the vote - although incumbent Pres. Tshisekedi is polling so far ahead of his rivals that no other candidate will be able to credibly dispute the outcome of the presidential race (Tshisekedi is polling at 49% vs. his nearest rival - ex-Katanga governor Moïse Katumbi - at 28%).
- Results could take 10 days to finalize - and perhaps more if election logistics are as chaotic as they seem from outside. Observers are already guessing that voting will stretch into tomorrow and Friday in some areas.
- Separately, the UN Security Council agreed to Kinshasa's demand to start withdrawing UN (MONUSCO) peacekeepers from DRC this month, which is a year sooner than originally planned.
- That's not because MONUSCO's job is done - eastern DRC is still violent and volatile - rather, Kinshasa wants MONUSCO to leave because it accuses peacekeepers of causing more trouble than they prevent or solve.
- The Rapid Support Forces captured Wad Madani, Sudan's second-largest city and a major hub for aid distribution, sending hundreds of thousands of displaced people who had taken refuge there fleeing south.
- There are already reports that the RSF is exacting retribution along ethnic lines as it solidifies its control of the city.
Yemen
- The NYT pointed out that Bahrain is the only Arab country to join the 10-country task force to protect shipping in the Red Sea.
- Others in the region are either abstaining (like Egypt, despite its vested interest in preserving the 2% of its GDP it earns from Red Sea trade) or vocally criticizing the U.S.-led effort (like Iran, which called it "direct participation in the crimes of the Zionist entity").
- The UN Security Council was supposed to vote yesterday on a resolution that would temporarily pause fighting in Gaza to allow for aid deliveries, but the vote was delayed until at least today to buy time to negotiate changes that would avoid a U.S. veto.
- Pres. Zelensky said Ukraine is considering mobilizing another 500,000 soldiers, subject to discussions his government is having with military officials.
- Analysts estimate that Ukraine has about a million active soldiers - including around 500,000 fighting at the front - so another 500,000 would be a big boost. By comparison, Russia's expanded military is around 1.5 million strong.