Posted by BW Actual on Oct 24th 2025
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Russia
- Pres. Putin reacted angrily to new U.S. sanctions on Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil, which Pres. Trump imposed in frustration with Putin's refusal to engage in Ukraine ceasefire talks. Putin called the new measures an "unfriendly act" and chided the foreign buyers complying with them that "no self-respecting country" would cave to such pressure.
- Yet Russia's major customers, including India and China, are indeed curtailing their purchases of seaborne Russian oil because of the new sanctions - at least in the short term. Oil prices rose 5% on expectations of greater competition to buy non-sanctioned oil.
Venezuela
- Two supersonic U.S. B-1 bombers flew close enough to Venezuela yesterday to cause concern for Nicolas Maduro, who is probably uneasily watching the skies for signs that Pres. Trump has begun to launch the land strikes he's been threatening.
- The U.S. Lancers remained in international airspace, and Pres. Trump later rejected initial Pentagon suggestions that the sorties were part of an "attack demonstration" to intimidate Maduro. But - given recent escalatory rhetoric from both sides - this looks like more of a preview than a false alarm.
Sudan
- According to media reports, representatives of "The Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - are meeting in Washington today to mediate between the warring sides of Sudan's civil war.
- Alas, neither the army nor the Rapid Support Forces seem ready to talk peace. Both deny that they're even engaging in indirect talks, and both continue to stock up on weapons - despite an (apparently ineffective) arms embargo.
Niger
- Suspected jihadist gunmen kidnapped an American missionary, Kevin Rideout, from his home just 100 meters (300 feet) from the presidential palace in Niamey.
- Rideout's abduction will be a painful reminder to the junta - which operates from the presidential palace - of how badly it has failed to contain jihadists and restore security since taking power in July 2023.
- Both Islamic State's Sahel Province (ISSP) and the Al Qaeda-linked Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) are active in Niger and across its porous borders, and both have abducted Westerners for ransom in recent years. But it was probably ISSP - rather than JNIM - that abducted Rideout, whose cell phone was last traced to an ISSP-ridden area north of Niamey.
West Bank
- Vice Pres. Vance and Pres. Trump both categorically rejected the Israeli Knesset's preliminary vote on a proposal to annex much of the West Bank.
- Vance - speaking from Israel - called it an "insult" and a "very stupid political stunt," and Trump vowed that "Israel would lose all of its support from the United States" if the measure wins full approval.
- Most of Prime Minister Netanyahu's Likud party would agree with Vance that the proposal was an opposition stunt designed to provoke outcry, and the bill is unlikely to clear the remaining three votes it would need to pass.
Trade
- Ontario - Canada's most populous province and the source of 38% of its GDP - roiled Pres. Trump by planning a video ad featuring one of Trump's most celebrated Republican predecessors, Ronald Reagan, denouncing tariffs as economically destructive for the country that imposes them.
- Trump complained that the ad sought to "interfere with" next month's Supreme Court decision on the legality of his tariffs, which include a tariff of 35% on most Canadian goods that would disproportionately affect Ontario. He then terminated ongoing trade talks with Canada. [Trump also called the ad "FAKE," but the Reagan audio it used was apparently genuine - albeit selectively presented and used without proper permissions.]
- This is the second time this year that U.S.-Canada trade talks have broken down. Trump first walked away from negotiations in June after Canada floated a new digital services levy that would have raised costs for U.S. tech firms. But talks quickly resumed after Canada relented on the tech tax.
- The latest termination is a blow to Canada's prime minister, Mark Carney, who had been getting along fairly well with Trump and had nothing to do with Ontario's new ad.
- Carney probably would've preferred for the bet he proposed on the Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series (which Carney jokingly claims Trump is "afraid" to accept) to be the biggest bone of contention between him and Trump.