Ukraine

• Western officials estimate that Russia's war casualties in Ukraine are approaching 200,000 - including those killed and wounded - and the pace of casualties is likely to accelerate as Russia mounts a new offensive that will send poorly trained recruits and ex-convicts to meet Ukrainian fire on the front lines.
• CIA Director Burns warned that the next six months of the war will be critical: Putin is gambling on the West losing interest in the prolonged battle for the Donbas, and Burns urged the West to stay engaged.
• Burns is a former ambassador to Russia and seems to have a good read on Pres. Putin's intentions: for example, he believes that Putin isn't serious about negotiations even though the Kremlin has said it's open to talks.
• In a speech commemorating a WWII anniversary, Putin reacted to Germany's commitment to send Ukraine Leopard 2 tanks by linking it back to the Soviet Union's fight against the Nazis: he said it was "unbelievable" that Russia was "again being threatened" by German tanks (the first time being WWII, which killed over eight million Soviet troops).

• Pope Francis has found an enthusiastic audience in DRC: around a million people turned out to see him in Kinshasa, where he labeled Congo's decades of violence a "forgotten genocide" and called for peace.
• Francis had planned to visit eastern DRC but had to abandon those plans because of the long-deteriorating security situation there. His message of peace didn't reach M23 rebels or Allied Democratic Forces militants: they continued to stoke violence in North Kivu and Ituri, respectively.

• The Pentagon said it is "confident" that a balloon spotted over sensitive sites near Billings, Montana is a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon.
• China's Foreign Ministry obfuscated: "Speculation and hype are not conducive to the solution of the problem until the facts are clear. We are learning about the verification of this matter. We hope both sides can handle matter calmly and prudently."
• Analysts think the balloon is intended as a somewhat innocuous signal that China recognizes its great power competition with the U.S. but doesn't want to further inflame tensions with a more aggressive spy incident ahead of SecState Blinken's trip to China next week.

• The U.S. has reportedly been lobbying Egypt and the UAE to push Libya and Sudan to expel Wagner Group mercenaries. Egypt and UAE are friendly with Wagner's clients in Libya (eastern commander Khalifa Haftar) and Sudan (the military government).
• An unnamed Egyptian official said the U.S. "obsesses" about Wagner: "it is at the top of every meeting."

• The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate from 4.5% to 4.75% and said there would be "a couple more" rate increases this year. Investors seemed pleased to see the Fed fighting inflation, and tech stocks led a market rally.