BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Oct 16th 2025

Gaza

Hamas returned the remains of one more hostage yesterday, bringing the total returned to nine. Since 28 hostages died in captivity in Gaza, that leaves 19 unaccounted for.
Hamas's armed wing said that was the last of the remains that it would be able to recover without additional equipment, but reiterated that it was "making a great effort to close this file" - even if doing so would take time.
That's not good enough for Israeli hawks like Defense Minister Katz, who accused Hamas of violating its side of the peace deal and said Israel would "not compromise" by accepting a partially-fulfilled commitment. Katz ordered the army to prepare a "comprehensive plan" to oust Hamas if the ceasefire fails and war resumes.
U.S. officials, on the other hand, seemed more willing to accept Hamas's explanation and waved off accusations that Hamas had violated the terms of the truce - perhaps because Hamas consistently raised warnings that it would face difficulty locating remains in the rubble.

Venezuela

Pres. Trump confirmed media reports that he had quietly authorized the CIA to carry out covert actions in Venezuela to augment naval programs against drug cartels in the region.
Publicly confirming an ongoing covert action program is likely something of a covert act in itself: Trump probably wants Venezuela's autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, to worry that the U.S. military is prepared to use force against him and his illegitimate regime.
The scare tactics worked: after finding out about the CIA authorization, Maduro quickly broadcast a panicked rejection of "regime change" and "CIA-orchestrated coups d'etats," and appealed for "no war, yes peace" with the U.S.

Syria

Pres. Putin welcomed Syria's interim president, Ahmed al Sharaa, for a state visit to Moscow during which they agreed to "reset" relations.
Al Sharaa's willingness to visit and overlook a checkered history with Russia - which armed the regime Al Sharaa's rebels fought for 14 years and ultimately deposed, and which still hosts al Sharaa's deposed predecessor in cushy exile - is a sign of how eager al Sharaa is to mend external relations so he can focus on consolidating power inside Syria.
For his part, Putin is probably keen on rapproachment with al Sharaa to avoid eviction from the longstanding military bases Russia maintains in Syria.

Russia

Under trade pressure from Pres. Trump, India's Prime Minister Modi reportedly agreed to temporarily stop buying Russian oil.
Oil prices rose about 1% as markets processed the news that India will soon need to turn to the competitive market to replace the one-third of its oil that it buys from Russia, thus driving market prices up.
The shift will also hurt Russia's oil revenues, which are a key component of its military funding. India was the second-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuel products behind China, accounting for roughly one-quarter of Russian fossil fuel exports in August.

France

France's reappointed Prime Minister, Sébastien Lecornu, faces two no-confidence votes today. The pair of filings illustrates how both extremes of the French political spectrum have united against centrists like Lecornu and Pres. Macron: one no-confidence motion was filed by Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally and the other came from the far-left France Unbowed party.
Yesterday, Lecornu scrapped an unpopular (but fiscally prudent) budget change that would have raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 in a bid to appease the left, whose support Lecornu needs to survive today's no-confidence votes.
It's not clear whether Lecornu's bargain will work. If it fails and either of the no-confidence measures pass, Pres. Macron will need to fumble for a ninth prime minister designate or consider calling snap elections.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire, ending another brief round of cross-border fire between their troops.
That doesn't resolve the underlying bases for the skirmishes, which are Pakistan's claims that Afghanistan gives terrorists safe haven and Afghanistan's objections to Pakistani strikes targeting those terrorists. But both countries seem keen to avoid war and quick to call for peace - even if it's a fragile peace.