BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Feb 24th 2025

Coming Up This Week

Today is the third anniversary of the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
France's Pres. Macron will become the first European leader to call on Pres. Trump this term when Macron visits the White House today. Macron said on social media that he hopes to use the meeting to convince Trump to include allies and Ukraine in his peace talks with Russia.
The UK's Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, will then follow in Macron's footsteps and meet Trump in DC on Thursday for broader conversations on trade, technology, and security.
Ramadan is expected to start Friday - which is also when the new Apple iPhone 16e goes on sale.
The 97th Academy Awards ceremony (or Oscars) happens Sunday.

Commodity Prices

Sudan

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a charter forming a breakaway "Government of Peace and Unity" in the areas of the unstable, divided country that are under its control (see map). The rival Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) also plans to form a government once it solidifies its control of Khartoum.
The RSF still controls southern Khartoum, but the SAF is steadily encroaching from the north (at least according to the SAF; the RSF dismissed the SAF's claims as "propaganda"). The SAF also claimed it has broken the RSF's two-year siege on el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state and a strategic supply hub for Darfur.
Both sides are lobbying for foreign support to legitimize their respective claims to power. The RSF signed its new charter in Nairobi to signal that it has Kenya's backing, while the SAF announced a partnership with Egypt to rebuild Sudan post-war (presumably assuming it wins the war).

Germany

Friedrich Merz's center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) won the most votes in yesterday's German election amidst the highest turnout since 1990, and will seek to form a government with the center-left Social Democrats.
The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) nearly doubled its share of the vote to 21%, but the CDU has ruled out including the AfD in a coalition.

Israel

In response to last week's bus bombs - which Israeli police say originated in the West Bank - Israel expanded its operations against militants in the northern West Bank and sent tanks into the territory for the first time in 20 years. The Palestinian Authority - which administers the West Bank - called it "a dangerous escalation."
Hamas released six more Israeli hostages on Saturday and returned the (correct) remains of hostage Shiri Bibas on Friday.
Israel was supposed to free 620 Palestinian prisoners in return, but indefinitely postponed their release in objection to what Prime Minister Netanyahu's office called Hamas's "cynical exploitation" of hostage release ceremonies for propaganda purposes.
Neither Israel nor Hamas has confirmed that they've started negotiating the second phase of the ceasefire, and peace remains tenuous.

Lebanon

Hezbollah held a massive funeral for its slain longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and Nasrallah's successor, Hashem Safieddine. Both were killed in Israeli airstrikes: Nasrallah on September 27 and Safieddine in October, before he'd even been publicly named as Hezbollah's new leader.
Israel savagely sent fighter jets - reportedly the same ones used in the airstrikes that killed Nasrallah and Safieddine - to buzz their funeral in Lebanon and send what Israeli Defense Minister Katz called a "clear message" to Hezbollah: "Whoever threatens to destroy Israel and attack Israel - it will be their end."
Safieddine's successor, current Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem, addressed the funeral remotely from an undisclosed, airstrike-resistant location with a vow to "uphold [Nasrallah's] will" and "choose to fire when we see fit" - despite its weakened standing.

DRC

Pres. Tshisekedi appealed to the U.S. and EU to start buying DRC-mined strategic minerals - like gold, cobalt, and the 3Ts (tantalum, tungsten, and tin) - directly from DRC instead of buying trafficked Congolese minerals from Rwanda.
The Trump administration seems interested in securing a direct minerals deal with DRC, while the European Parliament seems to be regretting and reconsidering its 2024 minerals deal with Rwanda in light of Rwanda's role instigating the current conflict (and the fact that Rwanda is selling the EU minerals it stole from DRC).
This was one of Tshisekedi's first public statements since Rwanda and the M23 rebels it backs captured Goma last month, and there are rumors that the president has been quiet because of infighting within his government. On Saturday, he made an oblique statement pledging to work with political opponents: "I lost the battle and not the war. I must reach out to everyone including the opposition. There will be a government of national unity." He offered no further details.
Separately, U.S. SecState Rubio and Kenya's Pres. Ruto joined calls for a ceasefire in eastern DRC and suggested appointing facilitators to secure a peace deal.

Ukraine

At Pres. Zelensky's invitation, delegates from over 30 countries are meeting virtually today - on the third anniversary of the start of the Ukraine war - to discuss aid and security guarantees for Ukraine.
Yesterday, Pres. Zelensky offered to step down "if peace for Ukraine requires me to," and also introduced "Another scenario: I could trade my position for NATO membership, if that’s what it takes." It's not clear whether Zelensky is actually thinking about resigning or just reacting to Pres. Trump's criticism calling him a "dictator."

China

China and the Cook Islands signed a five-year deal for the "exploration and research of seabed mineral resources." That angered the Cook Islands' former colonizer and traditional ally, New Zealand, which complained that the negotiations lacked transparency and jeopardized regional harmony.

Syria

The U.S. said it killed senior Al Qaeda "leadership facilitator" Wasim Tahsin Bayraqdar in an airstrike on northwest Syria on Friday.
Bayraqdar ranked high in Al Qaeda's Syrian branch, Hurras al Din (HAD), which splintered in 2018 from the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) rebels now running the country. HAD said it would comply with HTS's order for all armed groups in Syria to dissolve, but it also told its ~2,500 fighters not to disarm and to instead remain ready to fight again.