Posted by BW Actual on May 30th 2023
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Turkey
- Pres. Erdogan won reelection in Turkey's runoff poll Sunday and his opponent, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, conceded defeat but called the overall process "unfair."
- Erdogan's victory speech frightened investors: he ignored calls for wiser economic policy (which was the main issue Kilicdaroglu had challenged him on) and instead intensified his rhetoric against Kurdish "terrorists" and the LGBT community. The lira sank - along with investors' hopes for an economic turnaround in Turkey - to around 20 per dollar.
- On the other hand, analysts think Erdogan's win will make Turkey more likely to agree to let Sweden join NATO: Erdogan was holding Sweden's accession hostage to win votes by looking tough on the Kurdish opposition leaders he says Sweden is harboring, but now that the election has passed he can politically afford to relent (and doing so will improve relations with the U.S. and other NATO members who want Sweden to join).
- Pres. Putin's Belarusian puppet, Pres. Lukashenko, is wingmanning for Putin: having just formalized an agreement to receive Russian tactical nuclear weapons, he invited other countries to "join the Union State of Russia and Belarus" and promised them they, too, would get Russian nukes if they join.
- A Belarusian opposition leader claimed Lukashenko fell seriously ill after his last meeting with Putin. The opposition has been quick to speculate about Lukashenko's health lately and normally I would say that where there's smoke there's at least a spark of fire - but in this case, there isn't much to corroborate any of the opposition's reports.
- North Korea warned Japan that it plans to launch a satellite - perhaps its first spy satellite, which Kim Jong Un boasted about last week - in the next few days.
- The Hermit Kingdom doesn't usually notify its regional neighbors of new launches but may want to reduce the chance that Japan would shoot down a missile carrying a precious spy satellite. Japan said it will still shoot down any missile that enters its territory.
- China's first domestically produced passenger jet - the C919 - completed its first commercial flight yesterday. China wants its state-owned Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China to reduce China's reliance on Western firms for aircraft parts (though the C919 still uses mostly imported parts) - and likely eventually to compete with Western airlines.
- On a separate but similar note, a Chinese official said China hopes to land a man on the moon by 2030.
- The details of the debt ceiling deal Pres. Biden worked out with House Speaker McCarthy are becoming public - although the deal hasn't been finalized or signed yet. It would suspend the debt ceiling for two more years in exchange for policy promises like a limit on non-defense discretionary spending growth. The Treasury is forecast to run out of cash by June 5, so Congress is racing to finalize this deal by then.