Ukraine War

• Multiple accounts—including from Russian and Ukrainian military officials—suggest Russian forces are shifting away from their assaults on Kyiv and focusing on capturing Mariupol in the west and Chernihiv in the north. Ukraine thinks Russia’s new strategy is to divide Ukraine in two, with Russia controlling the eastern regions.
• Ukraine reports that some Russian units had retreated from Ukraine and crossed back into Belarus to regroup. Ukraine isn’t ruling out the possibility that they could return to threaten Kyiv, but they could also be redeployed in the east.
• Pres. Zelensky seemed to reluctantly accept that Mariupol may fall to Russian forces: he told Ukrainian soldiers there that they could abandon the fight to survive: “I understand what it looks like.” Zelensky says they refused to leave the city or their fallen comrades, though.
• A Western analyst says Ukrainian snipers have been deliberately targeting “anyone with gray hair standing near a bunch of antennas” as part of a conscious effort to decapitate the Russian command structure (which is a legal war tactic).
• They’ve been successful: seven Russian generals have now reportedly been killed in action in Ukraine (some by sniper fire and others by artillery strikes). That’s over a third of the 20 generals thought to be commanding Russian forces there. A Western military official noted that such a such a high casualty rate among senior commanders is “highly unusual.”

End Game

• In a video call with Russian journalists, Pres. Zelensky entertained the possibility of Ukraine remaining neutral—i.e., not aligning with Russia or the West—if it could bring peace. However, he reiterated that any potential peace deal with have to be approved by a referendum. He didn’t mention Russia’s demand for Ukraine to demilitarize.

China

• Shanghai is entering a new two-stage lockdown in an effort to contain a new COVID surge. Most of the eastern half of the city will be locked down and tested over the next five days, and the remaining districts will then lock down and test for the next five days. As with previous lockdowns in China, this will be a strict one: except for absolutely essential public services, all manufacturing and work that can’t happen remotely will be suspended.

Afghanistan

• The Taliban ordered international media outlets like VOA and BBC off the air, leaving the news to local outlets like Tolo and Shamshad (which tend to relay Taliban propaganda as fact without much critical analysis).
• The Guardian says the U.S. was on the verge of kicking off a process that would lead to eventual diplomatic recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan, but has now frozen that path because of the Taliban’s backtracking on girls’ education last week.

Guinea

• Guinea’s ruling junta reached a deal with Rio Tinto and the Chinese consortium that co-owns the massive Simandou iron ore project so development can resume on the site. Guinean officials say Rio Tinto and the Winning Consortium Simandou agreed to collaborate on the expensive infrastructure efforts tied to the project.
• As part of this new deal, infrastructure construction must be completed by December 2024 and commercial iron ore production must start by March 31, 2025. That’s a highly ambitious timeline, given that Rio Tinto has been dawdling around with Simandou since 1997.
• Meanwhile, Guinea plans to exercise an option that allows the state to ship 50% of mining companies’ exports, which will give the government unprecedented control over the mining sector. The plan still seems pretty half baked: it’s not clear whether the government would set up its own sales unit or outsource the work.
• A pair of articles about the above are pasted below.

Azerbaijan

• After getting scolded by Russian peacekeepers for violating the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan apparently withdrew the offending troops from the Parukh district. Armenia says two troops from each side were wounded in the minor skirmish.

Iran

• The U.S. Special Envoy for Iran, Robert Malley, said he “can’t be confident” that a new nuclear deal is imminent, despite recent optimism that the main issues had been resolved (and reports that the U.S. gave Russia the guarantees it demanded to support the draft deal). As Malley pointed out: “a few months ago we thought we were pretty close as well.”

Guinea reaches deal with miners to resume Simandou iron ore development (Reuters)

Guinea's ruling junta has reached an agreement with Rio Tinto and a Chinese-backed consortium to resume activities at the huge Simandou iron ore deposit, the mines minister said, after resolving infrastructure disputes.

Simandou holds more 4 billion tonnes of ore according to Guinea's government, making it the largest known deposit of its kind, but despite the ore being very high-grade, Simandou remains untapped decades after its discovery, largely due to legal disputes and political instability.

Guinea's transitional authorities said this month that the site's development would be halted as they sought clarification on how Guinea's interests would be preserved.

The government's move was seen as a way to put pressure on Rio and Winning Consortium Simandou to find a way to collaborate on the costly infrastructure needed to transport ore from Simandou to the port.

Mines Minister Moussa Magassouba said on state television late on Saturday that a framework agreement had been signed between the government and companies involved in the project: Rio Tinto, the Aluminium Corp of China (Chinalco) and the Chinese-backed SMB-Winning consortium.

He said the companies had "put aside many egos, many other interests to return to what is a win-win partnership for all parties."

Magassouba said infrastructure projects must be completed by December 2024 and commercial production must start by March 31, 2025, a timeline analysts say is ambitious given the scale of the infrastructure that needs to be built.

The agreement primarily concerned developing a 670 km (419 mile) railway from the Simandou site to a new deep water port, a plan that Magassouba said would cost about $15 billion.

He said the government had negotiated and obtained 15% stakes in the rail, port and mines, while the new infrastructure would become Guinean state property upon completion.

"This framework agreement will allow the joint development of this gigantic project ... and allow the acceleration of the process and a resumption of work," Fadi Wazni, chairman of SMB-Winning consortium board, said.

"The framework clearly outlines the key principles for all parties to work together on the co-development of infrastructure and sets out how the project will be built to international Environmental, Social, and Governance standards," Bold Baatar, Rio Tinto's head of Copper said in statement.

Rio Tinto has held rights to Simandou since 1997. It owns a 45.05% stake in the southern half, Blocks 3 and 4, of the deposit, with Chinalco holding 39.95% and Guinea's government the remaining 15%.

SMB-Winning won a government tender in November 2019 for Blocks 1 and 2.

Once it is fully up and running, Simandou is expected to produce 100 million tonnes of iron ore a year - with blocks 1 and 2 producing 60 million tonnes a year and Rio's blocks producing 40 million a year, JP Morgan analysts said earlier this month.

Guinea Expands Role in Mining Sector With Plan to Ship Exports (Bloomberg)

• Resource-rich nation would export half its mining output
• The top bauxite producer also has high-quality iron ore

Guinea’s government plans to export half of miners’ output in a push to exert more control over the lifeblood of its economy.

The world’s top bauxite exporter has a law that gives it the right to ship 50% of mining companies’ exports, but it hadn’t put it into effect until now, government spokesman Ousmane Gaoual Diallo said in an emailed statement late Thursday.

This will now be exercised directly or through an entity acting on behalf of the state, Diallo said. “The implementation will be done in accordance with international best practices,” he said without specifying how logistics would be handled.

Guinea has been expanding government control over its mining sector since President Mamadi Doumbouya seized power in a Sept. 5 coup. Friday’s announcement comes after Doumbouya suspended mining operations at Simandou, one of the world’s largest untapped iron ore deposits, to force miners to agree on an infrastructure financing plan and provide clarification on how Guinea would benefit.

Despite endemic levels of poverty, the West African nation vies with Australia as China’s largest supplier of bauxite, a reddish ore used to make aluminum.

Ismael Diakite, president of Guinea’s mining chamber, which brings together the country’s miners, including a Rio Tinto Plc unit, China-backed Societe Miniere de Boke, didn’t immediately answer calls requesting comment.