Ukraine

• Human Rights Watch says Russia planted banned anti-personnel mines as it retreated from Kyiv. Analysts say the use of mines suggests Russia isn’t planning another offensive on Kyiv since it would risk having its own soldiers set off the mines if they reentered the region.
• Pres. Zelensky dismissed two Ukrainian generals—the “chief of the Main Department of Internal Security of the Security Service of Ukraine” and the “head of the Office of the Security Service of Ukraine in the Kherson region” (long titles but they sound like fairly high ranks)—for treason, though Zelensky didn’t elaborate on their crimes.
• The U.S. said it would send Ukraine $300 million in military hardware, including laser-guided rocket systems and armed drones.

Russia

• Russia claims (and Ukraine denies) that Ukraine targeted an oil depot in Russia’s Belgorod region with helicopter airstrikes. If this turns out to be true, it would be the first Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil. Russia has suggested the strike could threaten prospects for ongoing peace talks.
• The NYT reports that Russians are now starting to believe propaganda saying that Western countries are the aggressors and Russia is the victim, and rallying behind Pres. Putin’s invasion after their apparent initial shock about the war.
• Meanwhile, Russia ordered a new draft to recruit 134,650 men aged 18-27 to reinforce its army.
• A Reuters piece pasted below explains the confusion over how much of an effect Russia’s decree demanding that “unfriendly” countries pay for their gas in rubles will actually have. There’s a loophole that allows European countries to pay in euros that Gazprombank will convert into rubles, so some analysts think this is just a move to shield Gazprom from future sanctions and won’t actually affect gas supplies to Europe. Gas is still flowing, and if it were to be cut off it wouldn’t be for weeks since contracts are settled weeks after delivery. European countries are making contingency plans in case Russia does cut its gas supplies off.

Yemen

• The Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition fighting them in Yemen agreed to a two-month Ramadan truce for the first time since 2016, and the Saudi side agreed to end its blockade of Yemeni ports. The Houthis had also demanded the release of all Houthi prisoners, and Yemen’s Saudi-backed recognized government said prisoner releases would begin soon.
• The UN celebrated the truce as a milestone towards lasting peace and relief for one of the world’s worst recent humanitarian crises. The truce is renewable after the two-month initial period, as long as both parties agree.

Ethiopia

• The World Food Program said an aid convoy entered Tigray for the first time since mid-December, following a new ceasefire agreed last week. Tigray still depends on the government’s good graces: aid flows are restricted to one route, and this single convoy of 20 trucks isn’t going to be enough to solve mounting shortages.

Guyana

• Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency approved ExxonMobil’s plans for a fourth offshore oil project in the Yellowtail block. Exxon hasn’t yet funded the project, but likely will soon: the company has high hopes for Guyana, and plans to divest other assets to reinvest the cash in its offshore Guyana blocks.

U.S.

• U.S. companies’ pre-tax profits rose 25% in 2021, which is the largest annual increase since 1976. It also suggests that consumers bore the brunt of rising prices for inputs like labor and materials: consumer prices in February were up 7.9% vs. February 2021.

Explainer: Nervous Europe sees Putin's gas-cut threat as bluster (Reuters)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's vow to cut customers off from its gas unless they start paying in roubles is more of a 'bluff' to ward off further sanctions than a genuine threat to stop supplying energy, according to European officials and analysts.

Gas was flowing to Europe normally on Friday, and some experts reckon the new arrangement may be broadly the same as the old process of paying, with only a slight boost for the embattled Russian currency.

Below is an outline of why, for now at least, Putin's gas ultimatum is considered bluster.

WHAT HAPPENED?

Europe is heavily reliant on Russia for its energy needs, with around 40% of its gas coming from the country. So if Moscow turned off the taps it could trigger immediate shortages, factory closures and crippling energy costs.

Gas contracts are priced in euros or dollars but Putin said they should be paid in roubles.

Western countries called Putin's demand "blackmail" and refused. Now it seems they won't have to change much, although they may switch how they pay for their gas in order to put money more directly into Russia's pocket.

Under the decree signed by Putin, foreign gas buyers must open accounts in state-controlled Gazprombank from Friday and pay direct - rather than, say, a German buyer using a local bank to transfer the money.

Gazprombank would then use that money to buy roubles, propping up the currency, a role typically done by the Russian central bank, which has been hobbled by the freezing of hundreds of billions of its reserves in response to war.

Putin's rouble demand baffled many European officials and experts and much remains unclear, making a final assessment difficult.

There will be a time lag before we know whether the new payment arrangement is workable because gas bills are paid weeks after delivery. That means any dispute - or gas cut - is some time off, if it happens at all.

There was no sign on Friday of immediate interruptions. Flows remained steady through two of the three main pipelines bringing Russian gas into Europe - Nord Stream 1 across the Baltic Sea, and into Slovakia over Ukraine.

Flows through the other main route, the Yamal-Europe pipeline over Belarus, had reversed direction, now bringing gas from Germany to Poland, but this is not uncommon.

IS IT A 'STORM IN A TEACUP?'

For now, it seems so. European officials and experts believe it is chiefly aimed at shielding Russian energy giant Gazprom from future sanctions - if Gazprombank collects the money, Europe could not sanction it without cutting gas.

An Italian minister said that if Russia's decree to pay for gas in roubles stays as it is "all in all, not a lot would change".

"It amounts to a warning from Putin not to tighten financial sanctions further," said Jeffrey Schott of the Peterson Institute of International Economics, a think tank.

It wouldn't be much of a boost for the rouble either. Prior to the invasion, the Russian central bank required most of the foreign currency from gas to be converted into roubles. Now all of it would have to be switched into the Russian currency.

"What sounded grandiose has turned into a storm in a teacup. By making it the main recipient of money for gas, it puts an extra shield against sanctions around Gazprombank," said Jack Sharples of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

One European official said he believed Putin had demanded the switch to rouble payment to test who would go along with it. But noone did.

"After the pushback, he is trying to find a system where he could claim that he had won, while in fact something close to the status quo is continuing," the official said.

WILL THE LIGHTS GO OUT?

Energy exports are Putin's most powerful lever as Russia tries to fight back against what it calls an "economic war". European officials and analysts are reluctant to say his threats to switch off supplies are truly empty.

Doing so would hurt Russia's Gazprom, as it would struggle to offload all European-bound gas to alternative buyers, said Dmitry Polevoy, an analyst at the Moscow-based brokerage Locko-Invest.

Experts believe it is nonetheless symbolically important and it has rattled faith in Russia's reliability in Germany, which this week had to take the exceptional step of warning of potential rationing ahead.

One European Union official said that while he considered the threatened cutoff without payment in roubles to be a 'bluff' the full implications of Putin's demands were unclear and that a tougher stance could emerge in the coming days.