Ukraine

• The Wagner Group is reportedly leading the Russian advance on Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine. That's significant because it shows Russia is trusting key campaigns to the private military force - rather than to its regular soldiers, who've been humiliated in a long string of losses.
• Bakhmut itself isn't strategically important, but Russia seems to see it as a chance for a symbolic victory that would boost morale. It would also boost Wagner's importance in the war.
• Separately, Russia appears to be preparing another round of strikes on energy and other infrastructure targets across Ukraine.
• The WSJ reports that the U.S. is encouraging Ukraine to signal it's open to talks with Russia. NSA Sullivan just visited Kyiv to convey "unwavering and unflinching" support for Ukraine, but apparently also spoke with Russian officials to gauge their openness to talks. Pres. Zelensky doesn't seem interested in talks, though.

• Ukraine promised to share its findings on Iranian drones with Iran this week, but Pres. Zelensky didn't wait for that report to cast blame on Iran for arming Russian forces: "If it were not for Iran supplying weapons to the aggressor, we would be closer to peace now."
• Meanwhile back in Iran, 227 of the country's 290 members of Parliament signed an open letter urging the judiciary to "show no leniency" when it sentences over 1,000 protesters who are currently on public trial.
• Dozens of those on trial face charges that carry the death sentence; if the judiciary heeds legislators' calls to teach protesters a "good lesson" and sentences them to death, there's a risk it would backfire and spark broader demonstrations.

• Guyana unveiled the terms for its next round of offshore oil and gas licenses, which are expected to be auctioned in late Q1 2023.
• The government generally felt it deserved a greater share of oil proceeds than it gave away in the first (uncompetitive) round of licenses - before Exxon's impressive offshore finds partially derisked the blocks - and its redesigned agreements for the new blocks improve its position: through higher royalty rates and a new 10% corporate tax, the government's share of oil proceeds will almost double from 14.5% to 27.5%.

• The big debate at the COP27 climate conference is between poorer developing countries facing the worst effects of climate change and the wealthier developed nations whose industrialization created much of the pollution causing climate change.
• Wealthy nations are reluctant to commit the ~$200 billion per year the UN estimates is needed because they fear getting locked into an infinite liability. I'm sure we'll read more about this debate as COP27 unfolds.