Coming Up This Week

• Friday Feb. 2 is Groundhog Day in the U.S.
• Mali was supposed to vote for a new president on Sunday, Feb. 4, but the junta "slightly postponed" the poll back in September, citing "technical reasons." They still haven't set a new election date.

• Aluminum: $2,275/ton
• Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,150/ton
• Cobalt: $29,135/ton
• Copper: $8,546/ton
• Gold: $2,029/toz
• Lead: $2,164/ton
• Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.51/MMbtu
• WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $77.81/barrel
• Zinc: $2,578/ton

• A drone strike killed three U.S. troops - and injured at least 34 others - in eastern Jordan near the Syrian border yesterday.
• Pres. Biden blamed "radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq," and Islamic Resistance - a loosely-organized network of Iran-linked militant groups in the region - claimed the attack.
• Iran quickly denied any direct involvement in this particular strike, but is known to train and arm the militants behind it.
• U.S. air defenses have blocked the vast majority of the 160+ rockets, drones, and missiles that Iran-backed groups have lobbed at American bases and personnel, but this was the lucky strike analysts were worried about.
• American deaths put Pres. Biden in a tough position: he'll want to retaliate in a way that deters future attacks on U.S. forces but won't draw Iran into direct conflict or threaten fragile negotiations for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza.

• Based on surveillance data, Israel credibly concluded that 12 employees of the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) supported Hamas's Oct. 7 attacks in various ways: one allegedly participated in a massacre on a kibbutz, and another doled out ammunition to Hamas.
• The UNRWA fired the accused employees, and UN SecGen Guterres begged donor countries like the U.S. not to follow through with threats to cut funding for the UNRWA.
• Meanwhile, the UN's International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued a timid ruling in South Africa's case accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. The ICJ ordered Israel to "take all measures within its power" to prevent genocide, but stopped short of demanding the immediate ceasefire South Africa had called for.

• Three of West Africa's four military juntas - Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso - jointly announced they will withdraw from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) over "inhumane" sanctions ECOWAS imposed on each country after its coup.
• ECOWAS had already suspended all three countries because of the coups, so their withdrawal from the bloc makes little practical difference and merely formalizes the split (after a one-year notification period).

• A Houthi missile struck an oil tanker shipping Russian refined oil through the Gulf of Aden, causing a large fire, but a British warship intercepted a second Houthi attack before it could reach its target.

• A judge in Hong Kong ordered property giant China Evergrande to give up on trying to restructure its $300 billion+ in debt and liquidate: "enough is enough."
• Authorities in mainland China aren't necessarily obligated to carry out the ruling, so Evergrande may continue bumbling along, and this may not be the "big bang" investors and analysts were hoping would end Evergrande's struggles.

• A court in Kenya blocked Pres. Ruto's plan to send Kenyan police to lead a multinational peacekeeping force in Haiti on procedural grounds: the government didn't follow correct procedure when it authorized the deployment.
• The government plans to appeal the decision, and Haiti and the UN likely hope to see it overturned: no other countries have stepped up to lead a badly-needed peacekeeping force for Haiti.