BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Jul 2nd 2024

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Ukraine

  • Ukraine's domestic intelligence unit, the SBU, said it uncovered yet another Russian plot [besides the whole war taking place] to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Four people were arrested and accused of planning to start a riot and then take advantage of the ensuing melee to seize Parliament and replace senior government officials.
  • Yesterday was Russia's deadline for Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied territories to "voluntarily" obtain a Russian passport or face penalties like higher utility prices, deportation, or even forced separation from their children. Despite the grave penalties, "passportization" still isn't an easy choice for many draft-age Ukrainian men, who could be conscripted to fight for Russia after signing up for a Russian passport.
  • Separately, Ukraine's defense minister, Rustem Umerov, is in Washington for talks with U.S. SecDef Lloyd Austin. Umerov will echo his boss's calls for more U.S. weapons.
  • Ukraine will need more planes, too: yesterday a Russian Iskander destroyed two of the few remaining Su-27s Ukraine has left, after they - and four other Su-27s - were parked in open air near the front lines. Analysts at Oryx believe Ukraine has about 35 jets (Su-27s, Su-25s, MiG-29s, and others) left from the 125 it had when the war began, so the loss of two in one day is a big blow.
Russia
  • The NYT reported that the information that led Pentagon officials to raise the security alert level at U.S. bases in Europe over the weekend was not related to jihadist threats against the Euro Cup or the Olympics [though those are also a concern, as is any big event].
  • Rather, the latest warning was based on vague threats Russia has made to retaliate against U.S.-linked targets as punishment for the U.S. supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons.
  • U.S. officials told the NYT there isn't (yet) any specific intelligence about possible Russian attacks on U.S. bases, and any such attack would be a dangerous escalation that would surely elicit a forceful response.
Israel and Gaza
  • Israel released the director of Gaza City's Al Shifa hospital, Dr. Mohammad Abu Salmiya, after detaining him for seven months. Human rights groups are outraged that he was held for so long without any (public) charges against him, while Israeli hawks are livid that he was freed and not kept longer.
  • After his release, Dr. Salmiya told reporters that he was subject to "almost daily" torture in detention, and accused Israeli doctors and nurses of denying him and fellow prisoners necessary treatment. Israel's Prison Service said it was "not aware of the claims" and insisted that "all prisoners are detained according to the law."
  • Meanwhile, Israel ordered fresh evacuations of Khan Younis and Rafah, suggesting it will probably send a new wave of ground troops into both cities.
Venezuela
  • Pres. Maduro announced that he had accepted a U.S. proposal to restart direct talks with U.S. officials beginning next Wednesday. As in the last round of talks, Qatar will mediate.
  • Though he now says the talks are "urgent," Maduro sat on the U.S. invitation to restart them for two months before accepting. Now the timing is more convenient for him: he may be able to win some quick concessions that impress voters ahead of the July 28 election he's contesting, but there's not enough time before election day for him to truly follow through on any commitments he makes to U.S. negotiators.
  • U.S. negotiators should remember that Maduro reneged on promises he made before, including commitments to ensure a fairer election.