Coming Up This Week

• Rwanda votes in a general election starting today. Pres. Kagame is seeking a fourth term, and he's likely to win it: he won the 2017 election with 99% of the vote and maintained a still-impressive 90% in the 2020 poll. Plus, he's sidelined all meaningful opposition and silenced anyone who dared to publicly criticize him.
• Syria is also voting in a sham election today. Only Syrians in government-held areas are allowed to vote, so it's unlikely there will be any surprises. However, the AP pointed out that the outcome from today's poll "could pave the way for a constitutional amendment to extend the term of President Bashar Assad."
• Today China met for its "third plenum," in which Communist Party leaders lay out long-term economic goals. They haven't announced any major changes yet, but they must have discussed ways to reignite slowing economic growth. [Chinese second-quarter GDP figures just came out, and they showed that year-over-year GDP growth shrank from 5.3% in Q1 to 4.7% last quarter.]
• The Republican National Convention also starts today and runs through Thursday. Saturday's assassination attempt on former - and perhaps also future - president Trump has changed the tone of the event: Trump said he was rewriting his speech to "bring the country together."

Commodity Prices

• Aluminum: $2,481/ton
• Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $22,600/ton
• Cobalt: $26,625/ton
• Copper: $9,877/ton
• Gold: $2,422/toz
• Lead: $2,210/ton
• Natural Gas (Nymex): $2.22/MMbtu
• WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $81.86/barrel
• Zinc: $2,943/ton

Gaza

• An Israeli strike in southern Gaza targeting Oct. 7 mastermind Muhammad Deif killed at least 90 people. It's not clear if Deif was among the 90 killed, but a close associate of his - Rafa Salameh - was confirmed dead.
• Despite that strike, Hamas said it remained committed to continuing ceasefire talks.

DRC

• Rwanda's Pres. Kagame - who's running for reelection today (and will win) - said the U.S. was responsible for the illegal gold mines that fund M23 rebels in DRC.
• That's highly unlikely: the UN has reported that Kagame is the one supporting M23 rebels, and estimated that over half the rebels' ranks are Rwandan soldiers.

Azerbaijan / Iran

• Azerbaijan reopened its embassy in Tehran more than a year after closing it in a diplomatic huff over a shooting there. Both Azerbaijan and Iran need more global friends, so it makes sense for them to make amends.

Migration

• Libyan authorities charged a director for private airline Ghadames Air with illegally helping to traffick migrants - many from "East Asian countries" - to the U.S. via Nicaragua. Ghadames Air reportedly flew hundreds of migrants to Nicaragua since 2021, when it was founded.

Other News

• Ivory Coast began rolling out a new anti-malaria vaccine, R21, today. This one is easier to manufacture in large batches than RTS,S, the first malaria vaccine introduced in Cameroon in January. It also costs half as much to produce.