BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Jan 12th 2026

Coming up this week

Uganda votes for president on Thursday, but there's little doubt that longtime leader Yoweri Museveni will easily win a seventh term. Watchdogs accuse him of engaging in a "brutal campaign of repression" to suppress dissent and stifle the opposition.
Portugal's presidential election is Sunday. Polls suggest a tight race between four candidates, including the incumbent Social Democratic Party's Luís Marques Mendes and the populist Chega Party's Andre Ventura.

Commodity and coin market prices

Iran

Iran's regime initially seemed more hesitant than it has been in the past to crack down on protests, but that reticence is now gone.
Authorities shut down internet - including, for the first time, Starlink - and engaged in as brutal a crackdown as ever.
Activists say over 500 people - including 490 protesters and nearly 50 security forces - have died in the past two weeks, and another 10,000 have been arrested.
Iran's leadership blamed foreign influence for having "stoked and fueled" the unrest, and - after a U.S. operation ousted Venezuela's Pres. Maduro - the regime must be fearing that Pres. Trump will make good on his vow to strike back if security forces kill protesters.
Iranian officials threatened to target U.S. troops, shipping lanes, and Israeli-linked sites if the U.S. gets involved, but the administration appears hopeful that it won't come to that. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: "We are ready for war but also for dialogue."

Venezuela

U.S. authorities seized a fifth Venezuela-linked oil tanker, the Olina, on Friday.
Separately, Pres. Trump met with oil executives to encourage them to invest in his plan to revive Venezuela's chronically mismanaged oil sector.
It will be a tough sell: ExxonMobil's boss called Venezuela "uninvestable."
Trump didn't like that. He accused Exxon of "playing too cute" and said he'd "probably be inclined to keep Exxon out" of the race to develop Venezuela's vast untapped oil reserves.

Syria

The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) announced a "partial cease-fire" after several days of clashes with government forces in and around Aleppo.
SDF forces then withdrew from two neighborhoods of Aleppo, effectively ceding them to government forces.
The clashes were a sign of trouble for Pres. Ahmed al Sharaa's efforts to unite the country and integrate its myriad militias - including the SDF - into a unified force.
Separately, the U.S. carried out another wave of airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) targets in Syria over the weekend.
Like the Dec. 19 strikes that preceded it, this operation sought to weaken IS and avenge the deaths last month of two U.S. Army soldiers and an interpreter.

Sudan

Sudan's Prime Minister Idris announced that his government would relocate back to Khartoum from Port Sudan, which became its capital when the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) overtook Khartoum in April 2023.
The shift is a sign that the government has fully consolidated its control of Khartoum, which it recaptured from the RSF in March 2025.

Central African Republic (CAR)

CAR's newly-re-elected president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, is facing a security challenge from the Azandé Ani Kpi Gbè (AAKG) militia in the southeast.
The AAKG gained strength with backing from Russia's Wagner Group and previously fought with Wagner and government forces against other rebel groups.
However, the AAKG felt betrayed when the government signed a peace deal ending its fight with the other rebel groups, and the AAKG's resentment is now spilling over into open conflict that could spread if Touadéra is unable to contain it.

Trade

A qualified majority of European Union (EU) countries voted to approve a trade deal with the South American bloc Mercosur after a quarter century of negotiations.
Several EU countries - including France, Austria, Hungary, Ireland, and Poland - still oppose it on the grounds that their farmers will struggle to compete with South American imports, but the European Commission is expected to overrule their dissent and ratify the deal as soon as next week.