BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Jul 14th 2025

Coming up this week

Today, France and its overseas regions commemorate Bastille Day: the anniversary of the symbolic start of the French Revolution that overthrew the monarchy.
On Thursday and Friday, South Africa is hosting a summit of G20 central bank governors and finance ministers - except U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, who is skipping.

Commodity and coin market prices

Aluminum: $2,603/ton
Antimony (trioxide min. 99.65% fob China): $30,950/ton
Bitcoin: $121,941 [BTC reached a record high over the weekend, driven by industry optimism for favorable U.S. regulatory announcements this week]
Cobalt: $33,335/ton
Copper: $9,661/ton
Ethereum: $3,067
Gold: $3,371/toz
Lead: $2,022/ton
Natural Gas (Nymex): $3.49/MMbtu
WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $69.48/barrel
Zinc: $2,739/ton

Trade

Pres. Trump threatened to slap 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico starting Aug. 1.
The EU and Mexico collectively comprise around one-third of U.S. imports by value, and the U.S. is a critical export market for both trading partners: around 80% of Mexico's exports - and roughly 20% of the EU's - go to the U.S.
Trump has often said that the goal of his tariff threats is to push trading partners to agree to trade terms that favor the U.S. By that measure, his latest threats are already succeeding: the EU quickly responded by postponing retaliatory trade measures that were due to go into effect tomorrow and reaffirming its commitment to negotiating a better trade deal.
Mexico's Pres. Sheinbaum is also working on a better bargain than 30% tariffs for Mexico, though she tends to prefer to work quietly and directly with the White House.

Gaza

The NYT Magazine published a damning - and long - report accusing Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu of prolonging the Gaza war for his own political gain. You can read the whole article here, or get the gist from the "three unavoidable conclusions" summarized in its lede below:

"In the years preceding the war, Netanyahu’s approach to Hamas helped to strengthen the group, giving it space to secretly prepare for war. In the months before that war, Netanyahu’s push to undermine Israel’s judiciary widened already-deep rifts within Israeli society and weakened its military, making Israel appear vulnerable and encouraging Hamas to ready its attack. And once the war began, Netanyahu’s decisions were at times colored predominantly by political and personal need instead of only military or national necessity."

Meanwhile; American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators are slowly advancing negotiations over their proposal for a 60-day ceasefire.
Netanyahu said a few days ago (Thursday) that he hoped a truce could be finalized "in a few days," but he stood firm on his condition that Hamas must fully disarm and cede power. Hamas rejects that condition, and is standing firm on its own condition that Israel has thus far rejected: a guarantee that this temporary truce will lead to an end to the war.

Ukraine

Ukraine's SBU intelligence agency said it carried out an operation yesterday that successfully "liquidated" the Russian FSB agents responsible for assassinating senior SBU member Col. Ivan Voronych in Kyiv just three days prior.
The SBU offered few details on its retaliatory operation yesterday, but the quick turnaround suggests the SBU may have been aware of FSB agents in Kyiv before they killed Col. Voronych.

North Korea

Russia's Foreign Minister Lavrov visited Pyongyang this weekend to meet with Kim Jong Un in what North Korean state media called "an atmosphere full of warm comradely trust."
Lavrov was likely asking Kim to send more troops and weapons to help Russia fight Ukraine.
Some analysts think Russia particularly needs combat engineers to help it cross the Dnieper River and seize Kherson, while others think it's just looking for more cannon fodder for its grueling war of attrition on the slowly-shifting front lines.
Whatever he was seeking, Lavrov probably got what he wanted: the pair were all smiles in media photos, and Kim gushingly reaffirmed his "unconditional support" for their "invincible fighting brotherhood."

South Africa

Pres. Ramaphosa suspended his police minister, Senzo Mchunu, over allegations that Mchunu protected a powerful criminal syndicate by shutting down police inquiries into its crimes.
Ramaphosa is under pressure from critical partners in his fragile ruling coalition - particularly the Democratic Alliance (DA) - to clean up corruption within his African National Congress party, and Mchunu's suspension helps show the DA that Ramaphosa hears their concerns.

Sudan

Having lost control of the North Kordofan state capital of El Obeid in February and the national capital of Khartoum in March, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is now focusing its efforts on retaking El Obeid.
Local reports suggest the RSF is receiving weapons from Khalifa Haftar via new supply routes to Libya. If true, the fight for El Obeid is likely to be fierce.
In the bigger picture, new Libyan support could help the RSF regain strength and re-equalize the war it's fighting with the army, which is likely to prolong the conflict.

Syria

Clashes between Bedouin tribes and Druze locals killed several people in the southern Syrian city of Sweida.
The two minority groups have long clashed in and around Sweida, and the latest bout of violence seems like a continuation of their longstanding feud - and unrelated to the April / May skirmishes between Druze fighters and troops loyal to the new government's army.