Posted by BW Actual on Dec 19th 2024
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Syria
- Over 600 former Syrian government soldiers answered new de facto leader Ahmed al-Shara's call for reconciliation and turned themselves in to new government officials.
- The former fighters hope for amnesty, and al-Shara has promised to spare low-ranking soldiers - many of whom were involuntarily conscripted anyway - but vowed to track down and punish Assad's senior commanders, who were more complicit in Assad's crimes than the rank and file.
- In another indication of baby steps towards normalcy in Syria; British, French, and German envoys met al-Shara and his fellow rebels-cum-officials in Damascus. The Europeans are reportedly cautiously dangling offers to lift sanctions and repair diplomatic relations with Syria if its new leaders agree to kick Russia out of the country.
- While al-Shara and Hayat Tahrir al Sham work towards normalcy in Damascus, the fragile peace between the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) in the northeast broke down. It was clear the truce wouldn't last when both sides used the calm to amass weapons and prepare for a fight. Al-Shara holds no sway over the SDF or SNA, and they're unlikely to heed his calls for peace.
- The WSJ reported that Russia is moving some of its advanced air-defense systems - including radars for S-400 and S-300 interceptor systems - from Syria to Libya, and installing them at bases under Khalifa Haftar's control in the east.
- The shift seems more opportunistic than strategic: with Assad's ouster in Syria, Russia doesn't need air defenses there; plus, bringing them to Libya will curry favor with Haftar, who has long sought air defenses to protect his eastern Libyan turf from rival factions in the west. [The U.S. won't be pleased to see Haftar accept more Russian weapons, though: CIA Director Burns has already visited Haftar to encourage him to part ways with Russia.]
- Russian security officials charged an Uzbek man with assassinating Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov in Moscow on Tuesday. The accused admitted guilt in a video confession, telling his captors that Ukrainian security services offered him $100,000 and safe passage to the European Union for the hit.
- Analysts generally agree that while Kirillov's killing may be a symbolic win that strikes fear into other Russian bigwigs, it probably won't change the course of the war.
- Pres. Zelensky met with NATO leaders yesterday and will address European Union (EU) leaders today.
- He wants to focus on "security guarantees for Ukraine for today and for tomorrow," which may include deploying NATO or EU troops to Ukraine after a possible future ceasefire takes hold. UK Defense Secretary John Healey suggested the UK could be willing to send troops, and other countries are said to be considering following suit.
- Zelensky expects Pres.-elect Trump to nudge Ukraine and Russia towards a ceasefire deal upon his inauguration in January, so - in addition to seeking NATO and EU guarantees for post-war security - Zelensky also using these meetings to ask for additional military support to strengthen his bargaining position ahead of peace talks.
- Yemen's Houthis fired a missile at Israel that was easily intercepted - although falling debris damaged a school near Tel Aviv.
- Israel anticipated the attack and already had a response ready: in fact, Israeli jets were en route to Yemen before the Houthis even launched their missile. The Israeli strikes pounded Houthi targets in Sana'a and Houthi-controlled ports and power assets elsewhere in Yemen.
- Auto giants Honda and Nissan - Japan's second- and third-largest carmakers, respectively - are reportedly considering a full merger. They already have plans to work together on electric vehicles but both have been losing share.