Posted by BW Actual on Aug 14th 2025
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Ukraine
- European leaders - including Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky - spoke with Pres. Trump on a video call yesterday to strategize ahead of Trump's in-person meeting with Russia's Pres. Putin tomorrow.
- The Europeans reiterated their insistence that Ukraine must have a say in any final peace agreement with Russia, and that the final peace plan must start with a ceasefire.
- After the call, the Europeans seemed cautiously optimistic that Trump had understood and would heed their concerns. German Chancellor Merz called the call "a truly exceptionally constructive and good conversation," and said it gave him "hope for peace in Ukraine." Zelensky was probably particularly pleased that Trump said he would focus on a ceasefire and would not agree to land swaps on Ukraine's behalf. Trump was positive, too, saying he "would rate [the call] a 10. Very friendly."
- Later, Trump seemed to harden his rhetoric on tomorrow's summit with Putin. While he previously downplayed expectations for what he said would only be a "feel-out meeting," he now says he plans to directly ask Putin to agree to end the war, and threatened "very severe" consequences if Putin refuses.
- Trump's critics point out that he hasn't always followed through after issuing tough ultimatums like this. For instance, in late July he threatened to impose "very severe tariffs" on Russia (and secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil) if Putin failed to agree to a ceasefire by roughly August 7-9. That deadline came and went, with no new tariffs imposed. Some worry he'll leave Alaska empty handed tomorrow. We'll see.
China
- The U.S. deployed two warships to the disputed part of the South China Sea where two Chinese warships collided with each other earlier this week while they were intimidating Philippine vessels in the area.
- The slow U.S. sail-by wasn't exactly a cinema-worthy action sequence, but it packed a diplomatic punch as a show of U.S. support for the Philippines' claim to the contested area.
- As usual, Beijing quickly complained that the U.S. sailing had "seriously violated China's sovereignty and security, severely undermined peace and stability in the South China Sea."
Mali
- Mali's junta detained its former prime minister, Choguel Kokalla Maiga, for alleged financial crimes.
- Maiga's arrest may have been partly political: though the junta appointed him shortly after they swept to power in a 2021 coup, Maiga lost their favor when he stopped playing along with their apparent plan to perpetually delay elections. They removed him in 2024 when he started publicly criticizing their military regime, and he's been vocally critical of their rule ever since.
Gaza
- Israel's Channel 12 reported that South Sudan isn't the only country Israeli officials have approached about a possible plan to resettle displaced Gazans abroad. Unnamed "diplomatic sources" told the Israeli media outlet that similar talks are also underway with Indonesia, Somaliland, Uganda, and Libya.
- Nothing has been agreed yet, and neither Israel nor other countries have officially confirmed that they're considering the idea.