Ukraine

• Ukrainian officials said aid groups and civilians would be blocked from entering Bakhmut, and some analysts are reading that as a sign that Ukraine may soon withdraw its troops and give the city up to Russia.
• On the other hand, analysts from the Institute for the Study of War think Russia is "exaggerating" its minor victories in Bakhmut as more significant milestones to frustrate the West into thinking Ukraine is struggling despite Western support. If that's correct, Ukraine may not be withdrawing so soon.
• NATO just audited the ammunition stockpiles of its members and came to the worrying conclusion that the war in Ukraine has significantly depleted ammunition supplies - and new production hasn't kept pace.
• That would be particularly troubling in the (I think still remote) possibility that European countries get dragged into war with Russia. One EU diplomat observed: "if Europe were to fight Russia, some countries would run out of ammunition in days."

• Moldova's president accused Russia of planning to topple her government and replace it with a friendlier puppet regime. The revelation reportedly came out of Ukrainian intercepts that were promptly shared with Moldova.

• The U.S. denied China's claim that U.S. spy balloons flew illegally into Chinese airspace more than ten times in the past year.
• Separately, the White House felt compelled to clarify that it doesn't think aliens are behind these unidentified flying objects.

• Suspected CODECO militants killed at least 22 civilians in two separate attacks in Ituri Sunday and yesterday.

• Equatorial Guinea confirmed its first-ever outbreak of the hemorrhagic Marburg virus and said it has already killed nine people. Marburg is similar to Ebola - highly infectious and deadly - but it seems like authorities were quick to implement quarantines and movement restrictions, so they should be able to isolate this outbreak.