BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Dec 8th 2025

Coming up this week

Today is the one-year anniversary of the fall of Bashar al Assad in Syria. Syrians generally seem cautiously optimistic about the direction their country is taking under rebel-cum-president Ahmed al Sharaa.
Australia's landmark youth social media ban goes into effect on Wednesday. Other governments considering similar bans - including Denmark's, Malaysia's, and the European Union's - will be closely monitoring this first major example and how it unfolds.
Wednesday is also the day that the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee will announce its decision on interest rates. Market prices imply a 85% probability of a rate cut.
In addition, Wednesday is when the Nobel Institute will bestow prizes on this year's winners, who were announced in October. Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado says she will travel to Norway to collect her Nobel Peace Prize in person, but Nicolas Maduro's government has provided a great example of the kind of bullying that Machado is being recognized for resisting by announcing that it will seek to block her from returning to Venezuela afterwards.
Hanukkah begins Sunday.
Chile votes in a presidential run-off on Saturday. In this round, voters will choose between leftist Jeannette Jara and her right-wing rival, José Antonio Kast. Kast is favored to win, thanks to support he consolidated from several right-leaning also-rans after the first round.

Commodity and coin market prices

China

China's customs agency released new data showing that its accumulated trade surplus with the rest of the world surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in November.
China's exports to the U.S. fell by a third due to new tariffs and preemptive shifts in anticipation of further trade escalation between the world's two largest economies. But China still sells three times more to the U.S. than it buys from its rival. It also substantially increased its exports of cheap goods to other markets, including its Southeast Asian neighbors and Europe.
Separately, Japan complained that Chinese J-15 fighter jets locked radar on Japanese aircraft in two separate incidents over the weekend. Radar locking is widely considered a threat because it could precede an air-to-air strike. It's seen as particularly intimidating when tensions are high - as they are between Japan and China now.

Benin

Several Beninois military officers under Lt. Col. Pascal Tigri attempted a coup yesterday, but were thwarted by their fellow soldiers backed by Nigerian air and ground support.
Benin has been a relatively stable democracy since an authoritarian era ended in 1991, but Pres. Patrice Talon has recently taken several backward steps to extend his party's rule and weaken opposition rivals.
Tigri and the other plotters apparently resented those anti-democratic moves and sought to fight them by overthrowing Talon (which doesn't seem very democratic either).

Nigeria

Nigerian authorities secured the release of 100 of the schoolkids who were kidnapped from a Catholic school in Niger State last month. The remaining 165 abductees - 153 students and 12 teachers - are still missing.

Ukraine

Ukrainian and U.S. officials met in Miami for another round of what both sides called "constructive discussions" about a possible Ukraine-Russia truce, and afterwards called on Russia to show some "serious commitment to long-term peace."
Pres. Putin seems seriously uninterested in that idea, and instead ordered his troops to prepare for winter combat.
Separately, the UN's nuclear watchdog assessed that the New Safe Confinement (NSC) shield containing Chernobyl's radioactive waste sustained damage from a Feb. 14 Russian drone strike that jeopardizes its ability to do its job. That's not to say radiation is already leaking out - just that it could start to if the NSC isn't repaired soon.

Thailand and Cambodia

Thailand and Cambodia traded air and ground fire across their tense border as the fragile truce they signed in October began to wobble.
The ceasefire is still largely holding - although Thailand technically suspended it last month - but it could fully unravel quickly if firing continues: both sides have warned that they're ready to retaliate if the other continues to strike.