BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Sep 12th 2024

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Ukraine

  • In meetings with SecState Blinken, Ukrainian officials reiterated their request for permission to use long-range U.S. weapons to strike targets deep inside of Russia. Later Blinken obliquely noted that the U.S. hadn't necessarily rejected the request this time, suggesting that a long-standing prohibition could soon be overturned.
  • Blinken and his British counterpart - Foreign Secretary David Lammy - each promised over $700 million in aid, assistance, or loan guarantees to Ukraine. Most of it will go towards reinforcing the energy grid against recurring Russian attacks.
  • Russia launched counterattacks to repel Ukrainian forces from Kursk. It's not yet clear how significant the counterattacks are, but some media are reporting that Pres. Putin has ordered his forces to retake control of Kursk by Oct. 1 - which would suggest a quick campaign to get them back on the offense in mere weeks.
  • Meanwhile in Ukraine, Russia has been making slow but clear progress towards the eastern city of Povrovsk. Capturing the city would give its forces a foothold to secure a stronger hold on the Donbas.

North Korea

  • Conflict Armament Research (CAR), a UK-based independent monitor, analyzed fragments of four Russian missiles used in Ukraine, and determined that they were short-range North Korean Hwasong-11 missiles. One had markings indicating it was produced in 2024.
  • The White House concluded in early January that North Korea had previously sent Russia weapons for use in Ukraine. This new analysis shows that wasn't just a one-off transfer.
  • It also shows that North Korea's missile production timeline is quick: the missile that was produced sometime in 2024 was smuggled through Russia, deployed to the launch site, and used to strike Kyiv on Aug. 18.

Mexico

  • Mexico's upper chamber stamped the final approval on Pres. AMLO's plan to "reform" the judiciary by making judgeships elected offices - despite disruptions by demonstrators who stormed the Senate building to protest the measure.
  • Critics of the resolution - who include legal experts, investors, and economists - say electing judges will weaken the rule of law and bring even more corruption to the already-tainted judiciary.

Venezuela

  • Spain's lower legislature - the Congress of Deputies - approved a symbolic measure recognizing exiled Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez as the winner of last month's presidential election, but PM Sanchez's government refused to join the U.S., Argentina, and Peru in formally recognizing Gonzalez as President-Elect (it has granted Gonzalez asylum, though).
  • Instead, Sanchez said he would stand by the EU's united position of demanding that Pres. Maduro's government publish the vote tallies (or actas) that prove Maduro's claim to victory. Maduro certainly won't comply, since the real actas would show he lost to Gonzalez.

Iran

  • Iran's new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is visiting Iraq on his first trip abroad as head of state. Pezeshkian told state media that he "imagine[s] this will be a very good trip for making economic, cultural, political and security ties."
  • Pezeshkian's choice of Iraq for his first trip abroad is a sign of strengthening ties between Iraq and Iran. Iraq buys a wide variety of Iranian products and is Iran's second-largest trading partner - after China, which essentially buys only crude oil from Iran.
  • Iran-Iraq trade has almost doubled in the past year as their bilateral ties strengthened - and at the expense of deteriorating relations with the U.S. At Iran's behest, Iraq began asking the U.S. to withdraw its troops from the country (though the drawdown is happening slower than Iran would like, and U.S. and Iraqi troops still carry out joint operations one against Islamic State militants last month).

Sudan

  • The UN Security Council extended the arms embargo prohibiting weapons transfers to Darfur for another year to Sep. 12, 2024.
  • The embargo applies only to Darfur and not to the rest of Sudan, where Human Rights Watch (HRW) says both sides - the Rapid Support Forces and the military - continue to receive new weapons from abroad. HRW had called for a country-wide ban on transferring weapons to Sudan.