BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Nov 24th 2025

Coming up this week

The UK's Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, will present her budget proposal on Wednesday. The UK must fill a big gap in funding and will certainly need to raise some taxes; Reeves faces the tall task of suggesting which levers to pull.
Thursday is Thanksgiving and U.S. markets are closed.

Commodity and coin market prices

Ukraine

Pres. Trump told Fox that he wants Ukraine to accept his latest peace proposal by Thursday.
Trump's 28-point proposal was crafted without Ukraine's input, and it reportedly threatens to revoke U.S. intelligence and weapons support for Ukraine if Pres. Zelensky doesn't agree to its tough terms - which include ceding all territory Russia currently holds (about 20% of pre-2014 Ukraine), limiting Ukraine's military to 600,000 troops (roughly two-thirds of its current active duty strength), and accepting that Ukraine can never join NATO (though it could still join the EU, if the EU admits it).
Zelensky lamented having to choose between "losing dignity" or losing U.S. support. He dispatched officials to Geneva to negotiate slightly better terms with U.S. officials, and both sides reported making good progress in the first day of talks yesterday.
However, Zelensky's bargaining power is limited by the ongoing corruption scandal engulfing his government.

Hezbollah

Israel launched its first airstrikes since June on Lebanon, killing Hezbollah chief of staff Haytham Tabtabai - and at least four others - on the outskirts of Beirut.
Israel said it targeted Tabtabai because he was leading Hezbollah's efforts to rearm - in violation of the ceasefire Israel and Hezbollah agreed to nearly a year ago.
Hezbollah warned that Israel's strike put the ceasefire in jeopardy, but so far it hasn't struck back.

Venezuela

Multiple media reports claimed the U.S. is preparing to launch the next phase of its operations against Venezuela in the coming days - though it's still unclear what form the mission would take. Analysts suggest it would probably start with covert action rather than military moves.
Nonetheless, multiple airlines cancelled their flights to Venezuela for the rest of the week after the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) warned pilots to "exercise caution" when flying through Venezuelan airspace because of the "worsening security situation" there.
The FAA didn't elaborate on the unspecified threats that led to its warning, but some watchers worry that Venezuela's nervous autocrat, Nicolas Maduro, could hastily mistake a passenger aircraft for an incoming U.S. airstrike and launch counterstrikes.
A CBS/YouGov poll conducted last week found that 70% of Americans oppose direct U.S. military action in Venezuela - perhaps because 76% say the Trump administration hasn't clearly articulated its goals there yet.
Pres. Trump said he would speak directly with Maduro "in the not too distant future," and has "something very specific to say" to him when they talk.

Pakistan

At least two suicide bombers killed three people in an attack on Peshawar's civilian paramilitary headquarters near the border with Afghanistan.
No group has claimed responsibility yet, but Islamabad will probably blame the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) - as well as Kabul for giving the TTP safe haven (Kabul denies supporting the TTP in any way).

Nigeria

Last Friday's mass kidnapping from a Catholic boarding school in Nigeria's central Niger State was even worse than the usually-sensationalist Nigerian media initially reported: the attackers kidnapped 303 students and 12 school staff. Since then, about 50 students have escaped.

Sudan

Sudan's army rejected the three-month ceasefire proposal the "Quad" - Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the U.S. - put forth earlier this month as "the worst document ever submitted."
Army head Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan probably thinks he can hold out for a better deal, now that Pres. Trump says he'll turn his attention to Sudan.