Posted by BW Actual on Jun 7th 2024

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Israel

  • Both Hezbollah and Israel are sabre-rattling about opening a new front of war in the north if their back-and-forth attacks continue to escalate.
  • The NYT doesn't think it will come to that, though: "whenever the fighting escalates, both Hezbollah and Israel seem to calibrate their tit-for-tat attacks so that no strike starts a larger conflict."
  • Meanwhile, Russia and China raised doubts at the UN Security Council (UNSC) about a U.S. draft resolution on the three-stage ceasefire deal Israel and Hamas are considering. Since both Russia and China are permanent members of the UNSC, either one can kill the resolution with a veto.
  • That said, it wouldn't really matter if the resolution is vetoed at the UNSC: only Israel and Hamas can agree to a ceasefire, and the UNSC can't force one on them. Neither Israel nor Hamas has officially responded to the proposal yet.
South Africa
  • Having lost its parliamentary majority, South Africa's ruling ANC was forced to choose which rival political parties to work with in order to form a majority - and thus a government.
  • Rather than choose between the pro-business Democratic Alliance, former president Zuma's upstart MK party, and / or the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters party as a coalition partner, the ANC decided to "invite all political parties to form a government of national unity."
  • As the BBC explains: "This is a looser arrangement than a coalition, which is a formal agreement among participating parties to work together and usually involves trade-offs in policies and positions."
  • That seems like a good solution for the ANC because it won't have to rely on - or make major concessions to - any one rival party.
India
  • India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had an easier choice than South Africa's ANC because it already partners with aligned parties in a coalition government with a solid majority. President Murmu formally invited PM Modi to form a government, and Modi will be re-inaugurated on Sunday.
  • Analysts are recovering from the surprise setback Modi's BJP suffered in Lok Sabha elections, and pondering whether the disappointing outcome will inspire Modi to review his uneven fiscal policies and propose more moderate economic programs that reach all Indians. [The BJP fared particularly badly in poor parts of India, where voters are frustrated that Modi's policies haven't improved their lot.]
Sudan
  • Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed over 100 people in the village of Wad Al-Noura.
  • The government - which has been fighting a grueling and fairly evenly-matched civil war against the RSF for the past year - condemned the "heinous massacre," and army chief Gen. Al Burhan visited survivors to call international attention to the tragedy inflicted by his rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dogolo (aka Hemedti).
  • Of course, Al-Burnhan's hands aren't clean either: the U.S. says both sides have committed war crimes.
  • The UN's Undersecretary General for Humanitarian Affairs condemned the attack and lamented at the devastation Gen. Al Burhan and Hemedti's war has caused to Sudan's civilian population: "two men decided that they were going to resolve their differences through fighting and take their country down."
Ukraine
  • France's Pres. Macron honored the 80th anniversary of D-Day by announcing a long-awaited deal to send Ukraine surplus Dassault Mirage 2000-5 ("dash-five") fighter jets...but only after they're retired from French Air Force service and replaced by new Dassault Rafales, which could be as late as 2029.
  • Like Macron, Pres. Biden met Pres. Zelensky on the sidelines of the D-Day commemorations. Biden promised Zelensky continued U.S. support and apologized for the monthslong delay in getting the latest U.S. military aid package approved.
China
  • Hong Kong police arrested three soccer (football) fans at a World Cup qualifying match for subtly protesting the Chinese national anthem. Police said the accused "turned their backs to the field and did not stand" [which sounds hard to do simultaneously]. They face up to three years in prison.