BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Nov 20th 2025

Ukraine

Media reports suggest that the U.S. and Russia have been in far more intense talks over Ukraine than the Kremlin recently suggested: they've been drafting a new, 28-point peace plan that could be unveiled as early as this week.
Ukraine was not involved in the discussions, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials who spoke anonymously to the media about the forthcoming proposal characterized it as lopsided in Russia's favor. The plan reportedly demands that Ukraine make considerable - and untenable - concessions, like downsizing its military and arsenal and surrendering the Donbas to Russia in exchange for an unspecified rental fee.
Ukrainian officials quickly and preemptively rejected the proposal - even before Russia had acknowledged its existence.
However, Pres. Zelensky has been weakened by a nuclear energy corruption scandal implicating some of his close associates, and may have less bargaining power than before to reject such unfavorable terms.
Zelensky returns from his European tour to Kyiv today and will meet with U.S. officials dispatched to discuss the new proposal.

Sudan

Pres. Trump announced that he'll shift his peacemaking focus toward Sudan to help bring about an end to the civil war that began there in 2023.
Trump said Sudan "wasn't on [his] charts" before his meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) yesterday, but that MBS had "asked [him] to use the power and influence of the Presidency to bring an immediate halt to what is taking place" there.
Trump's ability to influence the conflict was immediately apparent. As soon as Trump announced his interest in ending the war, Sudan's military leader, Gen. Abdel Fattah al Burhan - who, as recently as Friday, had refused to negotiate with the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) - expressed a "readiness to seriously engage with [the U.S. and Saudi] to achieve the peace that the Sudanese people hope for."
Al Burhan likely came around because he hopes Trump can pressure the United Arab Emirates into ending its support for the RSF.

Russia

The UK accused Russia of sending a spy ship, the Yantar, to the edge of British waters north of Scotland, and then of harassing pilots deployed to track the Yantar's movements with lasers.
London believes the Yantar is actively "gathering intelligence and mapping Britain’s undersea cables." Moscow insists the ship is an "oceanographic research vessel" - implausibly, unless it's "researching" where the UK's subsea cables lie.

Venezuela

Colombia's Foreign Minister told Bloomberg that Pres. Petro would back a plan to entice Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro to step down and cede power to a transitional government, and that "Maduro would be inclined to accept" such a proposal if it came with guarantees that he wouldn't be prosecuted afterwards.
Analysts seem to agree that Maduro would only agree to step down if he was guaranteed a "golden parachute" to avoid jail for his misrule, but it's unclear whether the U.S. would be open to the idea. Maduro hasn't officially commented either, and all of these discussions are taking place in backdoor channels.
Petro's support for removing Maduro was a significant diplomatic victory for the U.S.: though Colombia is a long-standing U.S. ally, Petro and his predecessors previously stayed out of the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela and spoke only broadly about the importance of avoiding war.
However, U.S. strikes on suspected drug boats in Colombia's neighborhood - and the worrying prospect of a U.S. land strike on Venezuela triggering a migrant exodus into Colombia - may have swayed Petro's calculus.

Mozambique

Mozambique's bullied opposition leader, Venâncio Mondlane, introduced a proposal to remove the AK-47 from the country's flag and add some stars and a laurel leaf in its place.
Mozambique is one of four countries whose flags feature modern weapons (for trivia insight, the other three are Guatemala, Haiti, and Bolivia).
Mondlane argues that the AK on Mozambique's flag projects "war, belligerence and crime," and should be removed to shift the focus to the book and hoe - symbols of knowledge and prosperity - that are currently overshadowed by the rifle.
Mondlane's proposal is unlikely to win the 167 votes it needs to pass in parliament, where the ruling Frelimo party controls 171 of 250 seats and opposes changing the current design that features strong links to Frelimo symbology.

Trade

New U.S. Commerce Department data showed that Mexico exceeded Canada as the largest buyer of U.S. exports for the first time in almost 30 years. Some analysts credited the generous tariff exemptions Pres. Trump has extended to Mexico - but withheld from Canada (though Canada still enjoys more favorable rates than most farther-flung trading partners).
Mexico is now the U.S.'s largest trading partner in both directions: it surpassed China as the biggest importer to the U.S. in 2023.