Posted by BW Actual on Aug 14th 2024
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Ukraine and Russia
- A Ukrainian army spokesman said Russia pulled a "relatively small number" of its units from Zaporizhzhia and Kherson to defend against Ukraine's week-old incursion into Kursk, Russia.
- Ukraine is now pushing into the Russian region of Belgorod - which borders Kursk - too. Belgorod declared a state of emergency today.
- Analysts think one of the main goals of Ukraine's incursion was to alleviate pressure on the front lines in Ukraine by drawing Russian attention across the border. If Russia is indeed shifting troops from Ukraine to Russia, it's working.
- That said, Russia's offensives in Pokrovsk and Donetsk continue to make progress too.
- Hamas decided not to attend ceasefire talks scheduled for tomorrow, collapsing the chances that those talks will result in an agreement on the "final" proposal the U.S. hoped to pitch.
- Hamas said it wouldn't attend because it doesn't believe PM Netanyahu has been negotiating in good faith. That's a fair accusation: recent reports suggest Netanyahu has been privately moving the goalpost in his favor by adding new rigid demands, while simultaneously stalling to delay signing a deal that will inevitably alienate some of his far-right supporters.
- Hamas was clear that it's not ruling out future talks, and would still be willing to engage if Israel sends a "serious response" to Hamas's latest proposal.
- Both Iranian officials and Pres. Biden indicated that Iran would postpone retaliatory strikes against Israel if an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal is reached this week. Alas, with Hamas bowing out of tomorrow's talks, that now looks unlikely.
- Brazil's Pres. Lula reportedly floated the idea of demanding fresh elections in Venezuela during a government meeting last week.
- An advisor to Lula called it an "embryonic" idea, and it would still be just a backup plan: Lula first hopes Pres. Maduro will produce electoral proof of his claim to the presidency.
- Meanwhile in Azerbaijan, the opposition is considering giving up before the Sep. 1 parliamentary election. Under Pres. Aliyev's iron grip on power - and willingness to falsify election results - opposition candidates acknowledge they "have no chance to win."
- Pakistani police arrested the former head of the mighty Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) spy agency, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed, on charges of corruption and political meddling.
- Gen. Hameed's arrest may be political meddling too: he's a close ally of jailed ex-PM Imran Khan and Khan's intended army chief. The generals in power resented that, which led to this crackdown on Khan and his allies.
- It's is the first time a current or former head of ISI has faced a court martial.
- The U.S. invited Sudan's warring leaders to ceasefire talks in Geneva today, but only one - Hemedti, who heads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) - has agreed to come. It's not clear if his rival, army chief Gen. Al Burhan, will also attend (Al Burhan objects to the attendance of the UAE, which he accuses of backing the RSF).
- Japan's unpopular PM Kishida abruptly announced that he would resign next month in favor of a new leader (or, is "pulling a Joe Biden," as one analyst put it).
- Kishida's approval ratings started out low and have plummeted further amidst rising prices and a scandal in his party.
- His Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) will now try to choose a successor and effect the sea change voters demand.
- Foreign minister Kamikawa Yoko is considered a top compromise candidate that LDP leaders can agree on. She would be Japan's first-ever female PM.