Ukraine

• Ukraine says Russia is planning to deploy Iranian surface-to-surface ballistic missiles in Ukraine for the first time and warned that its air defenses will have a hard time shooting them down.
• The National Council of Resistance in Iran - an Iranian opposition group in Paris that was the first to shed light on Iranian drones in Ukraine - estimates that Iran has sent Russia over 3,500 drones to date: "most of these were made at the factories of the Ministry of Defense, with others produced by the factories of the Iranian Aviation and Space Industries Association (IASIA)."
• A Business Insider article pasted below assesses that these drones use Chinese knock-offs of Western hardware that Iran seems to have reverse-engineered from the originals, which it either bought or stole. Reports like this are leading to calls for tighter export controls on components like engines that can be used in drones.

Iran

• U.S. and Saudi intel suggest Iran is planning an attack on energy infrastructure in Saudi to distract attention from ongoing protests across Iran (which Iran blames Saudi and Iraqi Kurdistan for instigating and encouraging). The Pentagon put its regional troops on alert to respond but noted that Iran isn't likely to target U.S. military assets directly.

Afghanistan

• For the first time since it was created in 2008, the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) will not be releasing its quarterly report on waste and fraud in U.S. military spending in Afghanistan. SIGAR head John Sopko - never one to hold back criticism for his bosses - blamed the Biden Administration's stonewalling.

China

• On Monday, Shanghai Disney abruptly closed its gates to comply with local COVID measures, locking tens of thousands of visitors inside until they could show a negative COVID test. This is the second time in a year the park has trapped visitors inside.
• Strict COVID policies like this were a key driver in weakening factory output across Asia. October data showed a decrease in manufacturing activity in every Asian country except Japan, which logged its smallest increase in almost two years.

North Korea

• North Korea fired a missile over its maritime border with South Korea for the first time: it fell into the sea about 40 miles (65 km) from South Korean coastline. South Korea vowed a "swift response," and launched three missiles back in the general direction of North Korea.

U.S.

• Pres. Biden accused oil companies of "war profiteering" for raking in record profits thanks to oil prices driven higher by Russia's war in Ukraine. He threatened to levy a windfall tax on their gains but insinuated they could avoid it if they opt to pass profits along to consumers - which Biden says would help gas prices drop by $0.50 per gallon. He's keen to divert blame for high gas prices from his party to oil companies ahead of midterm elections next week.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point - to 3.75% - today.

Strategic Minerals

• Follow up reports say Tesla is no longer in talks about buying a stake in Glencore and ended negotiations a while ago over concerns with Glencore's large coal mining business.

Other News

• Brazilian president Bolsonaro half conceded yesterday: he didn't explicitly acknowledge losing the election, but he authorized his chief of staff to prepare to hand over the presidency to election winner (and former president) Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, aka Lula.
• Bolsonaro's brief speech to supporters largely assuaged fears that he would try to contest the vote. Instead, he urged his supporters who are blocking highways in protest of his loss to stay peaceful and let traffic flow.

Iran appears to be using Chinese knock-offs of Western parts to build suicide drones for Russia's war in Ukraine, researchers find (Business Insider)

Iranian-made suicide drones that Russian forces have slammed into Ukrainian cities appear to contain Chinese knock-offs of Western parts, researchers have found. Over the last two months, Russian forces have been relying on Iran's explosive Shahed-136 drone systems to hit Ukraine's critical infrastructure in an ongoing terror blitz across the country. According to a new report from the Institute for Science and International Security, these weapons appear to be built using Chinese parts that are based on Western designs. Citing an open source review of available information, researchers found in their analysis published Monday that the Shahed-136 drone uses an engine built by Beijing MicroPilot Flight Control Systems — which is a copy of an engine built by German company Limbach Flugmotoren. Iran has also designed its own parts that are based on these knock-off Chinese parts. For example, the Shahed-131 drone — another drone used by Russian forces in Ukraine that is controlled by a remote operator and flown into a target and blown up — contains an engine built domestically in Iran, but it's a reverse-engineered copy of another Beijing MicroPilot Flight Control Systems engine. And this Chinese engine is based on a British design.

"China plays a larger role than previously assessed in enabling Iran to manufacture and supply drones to Russian forces. It appears that Chinese companies are supplying Iran with copies of Western commodities to produce UAV combat drones," the researchers wrote in their report.

Spencer Faragasso, a research fellow at the Institute for Science and International Security, told Insider that China somehow obtained these Western designs, though it's unclear if they were acquired through a transaction or another method. "What appears to be happening here is that China has taken the designs for these engines, indigenously produced them in China, and in some cases export these designs to Iran," Faragasso said. "In other cases, the engines have been identified directly in Iranian kamikaze drones." The extent of China's involvement in Iran's drone-making capabilities, however, it not immediately clear. It's also unknown when specific Chinese parts arrived in Iran.

In addition to the Chinese parts and designs, researchers also determined that Iran's Shahed-136 and Mohajer-6 — a different drone that Tehran has supplied to Moscow — contain parts made in the US and Europe. Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that Ukrainian investigators had managed to inspect downed drones and found Western-made parts that help to steer, power, and guide the weapons.

Faragasso said this highlights a need for customs officials, governments, and businesses to practice vigilance in that distributing commercial products that have military applications. "Discovering Iranian procurement networks can start with the Western suppliers, who would be expected to cooperate with authorities," researchers wrote in their report. "From there, authorities need to systematically expose Iran's procurement network, identifying trading companies, distributors, shipping companies, agents friendly to Iran, and ultimately those in Iran organizing these purchases." Russian President Vladimir Putin has used the Shahed-136 to attack and terrorize Ukrainian cities far from the front lines in recent weeks, as his military faces setbacks on the battlefield.

These small systems are packed with explosives and can fly around like normal drones, but they're actually long-range loitering munitions. This means they can hang around an area before being directed at a specific target, which they can fly into and detonate — leading people to refer to them as suicide or kamikaze drones. Despite evidence from Western intelligence agencies, Russia and Iran have denied that Shahed-136 are being used in Ukraine. US officials confirmed last month that Russian officials traveled to Iran to learn how to use the weapons, and Iranian military personnel more recently traveled to occupied Crimea to help Putin's troops operate the drones.