Posted by BW Actual on Nov 19th 2025
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Venezuela
- Citing unnamed U.S. officials, the NYT reported that Pres. Trump has signed off on CIA plans for possible covert action inside Venezuela to add pressure on autocrat Nicolas Maduro and prepare for a potential future military ground campaign to oust him.
- That doesn't mean Trump has decided to send ground troops into Venezuela. Rather, he seems to be keeping his options wide open: he reportedly also authorized new backdoor negotiations with Maduro's regime around the same time as he approved covert CIA action against it.
- The combination of military pressure and backdoor negotiations may be working on Maduro: the same U.S. officials told the NYT that Maduro recently offered to step down - but only after a two-year delay, which U.S. negotiators rejected.
- Talks will continue.
Saudi Arabia
- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS)'s visit to the White House yesterday went well.
- MBS raised Saudi's four-year commitment to invest in the U.S. from $600 billion to almost $1 trillion, or roughly one year of Saudi's nominal gross domestic product. The commitment suits both sides well: a much-needed foreign cash infusion should boost jobs and economic growth in the U.S., while advancing MBS's Vision 2030 goal of diversifying the Kingdom's economy from oil.
- Saudi is particularly interested in investing in U.S. nuclear energy and artificial intelligence technology.
- Just before MBS's arrival, Pres. Trump confirmed that he plans to approve Saudi's purchase of up to 48 F-35 fighter jets. Critics expressed two concerns about the F-35 deal.
- First, the jets were one of Trump's best bargaining chips to trade for Saudi's agreement to join the Abraham Accords, but it now appears Trump unilaterally conceded his side of the deal without securing any commitment from MBS on the Abraham Accords - or normalizing relations with Israel - in return.
- Second, China hawks are concerned that China will get its hands on any advanced tech inside the F-35s the U.S. sells to Saudi. That's a reasonable concern: China is Saudi's largest trading partner, and the military partnership between them is strong and growing.
- Trump further riled his critics by dismissing media concerns over the 2018 killing of Washington Post reporter and Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. U.S. intelligence had concluded that MBS approved Khashoggi's killing, but Trump contradicted that in his response to a press question yesterday: "Things happened, but [MBS] knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that."
Ukraine
- Fresh off a European diplomatic tour, Pres. Zelensky said he would next visit Turkey in an effort to revive momentum for peace talks with Russia, which fizzled out over the summer when rumored direct talks in Turkey failed to come about.
- Zelensky's invitation to fresh talks seems to be falling on deaf ears in the Kremlin. A spokesman said that "Russia continues to be open to the negotiation process" - but not open enough to negotiate. Moscow will not be sending officials to Turkey for talks.
- Lest Moscow be accused of doing nothing, special envoy Kirill Dmitriev announced that he and other Russian officials have held informal conversations with "some U.S. officials and members of the Trump team" over a possible prisoner exchange and other (unspecified) topics.
- Dmitriev is likely referring to the "1200 for 1200" swap Ukraine and Russia previously agreed to in July and have already partially fulfilled by swapping 331 prisoners of war and 20 civilians each in the ensuing months.