Ukraine

• The UK’s spy chief, Sir Jeremy Fleming, told an Australian audience that Russian troops are suffering from low morale and refusing to carry out orders. He also claimed—without elaborating—that Russia accidentally shot down one of its own planes over Ukraine.
• That’s consistent with other Western intelligence reports characterizing Russia’s war as a disorganized and misinformed bungle—although the NYT points out Western intelligence could be sowing those rumors to create anxiety and discord within the Russian government.

End Game

• Russia downplayed reports of progress in peace talks with Ukraine in Istanbul: “No one said that the sides have made headway. We can’t point to anything particularly promising.” Well then.
• That said, Russia did commit to limiting its operations near Kyiv, which sounds like an olive branch but is thought to actually be more of a (possibly temporary) repositioning of troops to boost force strength in other parts of Ukraine.
• The Economist suggests Russia may eventually settle for the “face-saving exit plan” of taking just minor territorial gains like the port city of Mariupol, rather than all of Ukraine. However, Ukraine isn’t going to let Mariupol go without a fight and Western countries aren’t going to lift crippling sanctions if Russia keeps any new territory, so this doesn’t seem like a viable end game.

Russia

• G7 countries roundly rejected Russia’s demand that they pay for its gas in rubles. Both France and Germany have told Pres. Putin ruble payments aren’t possible and preparing for possible disruptions in gas deliveries because of their refusal (although it sounds like Russia is planning to relax its demand for ruble payments anyway).
• Several European countries—Belgium, Czechia, Ireland, and the Netherlands—expelled a total of 43 Russian diplomats they accused of spying. That’s the second recent round of expulsions: Bulgaria, Poland, and the Baltic states kicked Russians out for spying earlier this month.
• Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visited India for what some think was an effort to woo India over to the pro-Russian side of “neutral.” It sort of worked: several Indian media outlets are spreading Russian propaganda, including claims that the U.S. provoked Russia into attacking Ukraine and is developing biological weapons in Ukraine.
• The U.S.’s chief strategist for sanctions on Russia is now visiting India to try to undo some of the diplomatic damage Lavrov did on his trip. Media reports suggest he may offer to sell India discounted U.S. oil to curry favor.

Yemen

• The Saudi-led coalition and Houthi rebels announced separate but overlapping ceasefires, but the Houthi’s ceasefire is conditional on unlikely demands like the coalition releasing all Houthi prisoners and lifting its blockade on Houthi territory. Nonetheless, the ceasefires offer hope for a more meaningful peace deal in the near future…possibly before Ramadan starts this weekend.

Ethiopia

• The provisional truce Ethiopia’s government and Tigrayan rebels agreed to on March 25 is still holding, but the government hasn’t made good on its promise to let aid flows resume: it authorized only one road for aid shipments, in what the UN called a “de facto blockade.”
• Tigray’s agreement to the truce was conditional on the arrival of desperately-needed aid, so Tigrayan leaders have threatened to start fighting again if aid remains blocked.

Iran

• The U.S. slapped new sanctions on several Iranian entities involved in the country’s ballistic missile programs. That’s perhaps a sign that a new nuclear deal isn’t imminent: if they were about to sign a new agreement, the U.S. would be more likely to lift some sanctions than to add new ones.
• Indeed, the U.S. special envoy for Iran told CNN a new nuclear deal “is not around the corner and is not inevitable.”

Other News

• Tunisia’s president, Kais Saied fully dissolved parliament in order to “preserve the state and its institutions”—i.e., grab more power. Pres. Saied suspended parliament eight months ago and has been strengthening his grip on power, so his latest move wasn’t a big surprise.