Posted by BW Actual on Nov 13th 2025
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Pakistan and India
- Emerging media reports clarified that it was a faction of the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) called Jamaat-ul-Ahrar - not the main TTP - that claimed this week's Islamabad blast. The main TTP denied involvement.
- Ever on edge with India, Pakistan's Prime Minister, Shehbaz Sharif, and Interior Minister, Mohsin Naqvi, blamed Indian proxies for sponsoring the terrorists behind the blast.
- India quickly rejected the accusations and chided Pakistani leadership for "concoct[ing] false narratives against India in order to deflect the attention of its own public from the ongoing military-inspired constitutional subversion and power-grab unfolding within the country."
- Meanwhile, India has been more cautious about assigning blame for a separate blast in its capital this week. Indian officials are slowly starting to informally refer to it as a terrorist attack, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi blamed unnamed "conspirators" instead of directly suggesting Pakistani involvement. [Though there do seem to be links between the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) and the Delhi attack.]
- Modi is probably choosing his words wisely because he declared during the last confrontation with Pakistan that any future terror attack would be considered an "act of war." That threat drew a stark red line that Modi likely isn't prepared to cross just yet.
- So far, it seems coincidental that the Islamabad and Delhi blasts happened in the same week and caused similar levels of casualties: there are no known direct connections between the two attacks.
Afghanistan
- Pakistani officials have also alluded to Afghan Taliban involvement in the Islamabad blast, although Kabul strenuously denied any links and condemned the attack.
- Pakistan's accusations are unlikely to deepen the simmering conflict with Afghanistan into full-blown conflict, but Islamabad's internal blame trading will probably distract its attention from long-term ceasefire talks with Kabul.
- Turkey - which moderated the first two (unsuccessful) rounds of ceasefire negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan - sent a delegation to Islamabad to try to salvage momentum for talks, but its delegates will find it hard to get an audience with panicked Pakistani officials.
Iraq
- Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed al Sudani is leading in early results from yesterday's election, but he likely won't have enough votes to form a government, which means he will need to haggle with rival blocs for their support.
- Voter turnout was much higher than expected, at 55% (vs. 41% in 2021) - despite a Sadrist boycott. Military leaders and Kurdistani officials took credit for boosting turnout by motivating voters, but widespread accusations of vote buying suggest that some of the excess turnout may have been motivated by money.
Venezuela
- Colombia joined the UK in suspending intelligence sharing with the U.S. over concerns about the U.S. using shared information to extrajudicially target drug traffickers in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific.
- U.S. SecState Rubio shrugged off such criticism, telling reporters that none of his G7 counterparts raised the issue in their closed-door meetings this week, and reiterating that the strikes are necessary "to defend the national interest and national security of the United States, which is under threat by these terrorist organizations."
Ukraine
- Ukrainian politicians - including some close to Pres. Zelensky - are starting to fall as a result of the country's new investigation into allegations of a $100 million graft at the state nuclear company.
- Justice Minister German Galushchenko - who was formerly Energy Minister - and Energy Minister Svitlana Grynchuk reluctantly agreed to be suspended, but maintained their innocence.
- A lawmaker from Zelensky's party explained why the investigation is particularly problematic for Zelensky and Ukraine right now: "Internally this scandal will be used to undermine unity and stability within the country. Externally, our enemies will use it as an argument to stop aid to Ukraine,"
U.S.
- Pres. Trump signed a bill reopening the U.S. government after a record 43-day shutdown, for which Republicans and Democrats blame each other.
Global warming
- The Global Carbon Project projected that global carbon dioxide emissions will reach 38.1 billion tons in 2025, marking a 1.1% rise over 2024.
- The increase was not global: Europe's emissions continued to decline and China's stayed flat (albeit at a much high level than 20 years ago), while India, the U.S., and the rest of the world burned more fossil fuels and accounted for the global net rise.