BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Feb 19th 2025

Ukraine

Senior U.S. and Russian delegations - led by SecState Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov - met in Saudi Arabia yesterday for the most significant direct talks between their countries in years.
The main purpose of their summit was to align on a path towards ending the war in Ukraine, but they also agreed to explore what Rubio called "the incredible opportunities that exist to partner with the Russians, geopolitically...and economically" - though Rubio also noted that U.S. sanctions on Russia will remain in place, for now.
European leaders who were left out of the summit - Ukraine's Pres. Zelensky most of all - expressed disappointment that the U.S. would so easily embrace a geopolitical rival after years of leading multilateral efforts to isolate it, and complained that Ukraine must be included in meetings about its future.
Zelensky's complaints about being left out drew a sharp rebuke from Pres. Trump, who appeared to blame Ukraine for being invaded and failing to launch peace talks sooner: "You should have never started it. You could have made a deal." [Trump also taunted Zelensky's low approval ratings, though he cited an inaccurate figure of 4%. Zelensky won 57% approval in the latest survey reported.]
Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson observed that "Trump’s statements are not intended to be historically accurate but to shock Europeans into action." It seems to be working: EU leaders are organizing another, more inclusive emergency summit on Ukraine tomorrow.

Gaza

Hamas reportedly extended an unsolicited offer - apparently at Egypt's behest - to kick off the second phase of ceasefire negotiations with Israel. Under its offer, Hamas would release all of its remaining hostages and hand over control of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority (which governs the West Bank), in exchange for a permanent ceasefire and full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu bluntly shut the idea down in a post on X: "Not going to happen." Netanyahu is committed to disarming Hamas and evicting it from Gaza altogether - conditions which Hamas has rejected and called "ridiculous psychological warfare."
Meanwhile, Egypt's Pres. Al Sisi will present his broader vision for Gaza in Riyadh tomorrow. Al Sisi's plan is said to call on Arab states to contribute up to to $20 billion to rebuild Gaza. Egyptian and Jordanian diplomats said (off the record) that Pres. Trump has agreed to the Egyptian plan, which was concocted as an alternative to Trump's initial proposal that controversially called for Gazans to be resettled elsewhere.

DRC

After capturing Bukavu over the weekend, M23 rebels are now reportedly turning their sights northward to Butembo. Local reports noted that rebel units are already about halfway from Goma to Butembo, and have been attacking all Congolese army positions along their route.
Another contingent of rebels is fanning south from Bukavu and captured Kamanyo yesterday. Their next target to the south could be the city of Uvira.
Burundi reportedly gave up and withdrew its troops in eastern DRC (though Burundian officials denied those reports and called them "fake"), while Uganda called on rebels northern Ituri province's capital of Bunia to surrender their weapons and threatened to deploy more troops to Bunia to fight any rebels who refuse to disarm within 24 hours.

Sudan

Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) said that it, too, plans to form a new government for Sudan. The RSF's government will rival the new government the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) recently said it would form as soon as it retakes Khartoum from the RSF.
The RSF and SAF have been fighting each other in a grueling civil war for nearly two years, so it was pretty clear that their former alliance was over. This week's news that they both intend to establish rival governments merely formalizes their split.
Side note: The fact that the RSF made its announcement from a government convention center in Nairobi, Kenya seems to corroborate the SAF's claims that Kenya is supporting the RSF.

Syria

Mazloum Abdi, a commander for the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces (SDF), said the SDF had agreed to merge into the new Syrian army after discussions with the rebels who deposed Pres. Assad and now control Damascus.
Abdi said the SDF also agreed to two key conditions. First, it will expel non-Kurdish fighters - principally militants from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) - from its ranks. That news will please Turkey, which considers the PKK a terrorist group and has long pushed the SDF to split with it. Second, the SDF agreed to hand over control over prisons housing Islamic State militants to the Syrian government.
The SDF was the largest major rebel faction excluded from Syria's new government, so analysts see its inclusion as a significant achievement for Pres. Al Sharaa's efforts to unite the country. However, both the SDF and Al Sharaa's government acknowledge that they still have big disagreements to work out.

Venezuela

Guyana's military said six of its soldiers were injured by cross-border fire coming from Venezuela.
Though Guyanese officials cautiously blamed suspected gang members - as opposed to Venezuelan government agents - the incident happened in part of the vast area that Guyana and Venezuela dispute, so it raised tensions.
Guyana reasserted that its army "remains committed to protecting its borders and will take all necessary measures to address any threats to national security," while Venezuela's Foreign Minister accused Guyana of staging "a false-flag operation and fake news designed to manipulate public opinion and divert attention from the violations of international law."

Brazil

Brazil's Attorney General indicted former president Jair Bolsonaro and 34 others for attempting a coup to keep Bolsonaro in power after he lost his re-election bid in 2022. Bolsonaro claims the charges are politically motivated. Brazil's Supreme Court will review the charges and decide whether to try Bolsonaro for them.