BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Dec 1st 2025

Coming up this week

Honduras voted for president yesterday. Pres. Trump endorsed Nasry “Tito” Asfura of the National Party, who has a narrow lead in early vote counts.
The U.S. assumes the presidency of the G20 today, and will hold the role through Nov. 30 of next year. That means the U.S. will also host next year's G20 summit.
NATO foreign ministers will meet in Brussels on Wednesday for the second of two biannual summits. Unusually, U.S. SecState Rubio plans to skip the meeting and send a deputy instead, which the rumor mill has interpreted as a sign that the U.S. is deprioritizing NATO.
Instead, U.S. officials are likely prioritizing ongoing peace negotiations with Ukraine and Russia. Rubio met Ukrainian officials in Florida over the weekend for talks he called "productive," and U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will travel to Moscow this week to seek Moscow's unlikely agreement for a deal.
Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC's) Pres. Tshisekedi and Rwanda's Pres. Kagame reportedly plan to sign a new, U.S.-backed peace agreement in Washington on Thursday to end their multi-decade armed conflict. Few are holding their breath: prior attempts at a truce have all fizzled out while they continue to fight in eastern DRC.
Sunday is the 84th anniversary of the surprise Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor.

Commodity and coin market prices

Venezuela

Pres. Trump confirmed that he spoke with Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro by phone in recent weeks, but he was uncharacteristically ineffusive about the call: "I wouldn't say it went well or badly. It was a phone call."
More cautious media readouts said Trump and Maduro discussed the idea of a future in-person summit in the U.S. - but didn't commit to firm meeting plans.
The Miami Herald, on the other hand, reported on a much more consequential conversation. Its readout claimed Maduro sought Trump's assurance of a global amnesty for himself and his cronies and a guarantee that Maduro could remain in command of Venezuela's military in exchange for allowing real elections.
The Herald said that Trump rebuffed Maduro's demands and countered with an ultimatum that Maduro step down and leave Venezuela immediately - which Maduro rejected.

Iran

Iran said it would boycott Friday's World Cup draw in Washington, DC, after several of its officials were denied visas to attend the event. Iran still plans to play in the World Cup next summer, so this boycott is a symbolic tiff over a few visa denials. [Four Iranian football officials received visas for this week's event, but plan to skip it in solidarity with their counterparts who were denied visas.]

Russia

Vilnius Airport closed due to aerial intrusions for the 10th time this year. While many recent European airport closures have been in reaction to Russian drone intrusions, Vilnius's main aerial menace is an influx of balloons floating over the border from Belarus with smuggled cigarettes.

Ukraine

Pres. Zelensky's chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, resigned from his post over the ongoing corruption investigation into Ukraine's state nuclear company.
Yermak had been thought safe - for now - because he was leading Ukraine's delegation in peace negotiations with Russia. His resignation raises further concerns for the longevity of Zelensky's government and the viability of the peace talks he was leading.

Syria

U.S. and Syrian forces launched a joint operation against Islamic State weapons storage facilities in southern Syria last week, destroying vast caches of weapons at a total of 15 sites.
The joint operation marked the first major example of U.S.-Syrian military cooperation since Syria's Pres. al Sharaa visited Pres. Trump in the White House last month.
Separately - and presumably without Damascus's help - Israeli forces carried out a raid targeting the Lebanese militant group Jama’a Islamiya in southern Syria, killing 13 people (per Syrian state media) and suffering six non-fatal casualties in the process.

Guinea-Bissau

Guinea-Bissau's "ousted" leader, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, fled his first exile in Senegal for Congo-Brazzaville after the Prime Minister of his home-in-exile, Senegal's Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko, questioned whether Embalo staged his own coup.
Sonko is not the only African bigwig who thinks Embalo staged a fake coup as a pretext to withhold unfavorable election results and stay in power (via a proxy) despite losing the vote. Former Nigerian president Goodluck Jonathan - who observed the election in Bissau - has made similar claims, too, and their claims seem more credible than Embalo's story that his close allies politely overthrew him.

Niger

Niger's junta leader, Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani, announced plans to sell uranium produced by a now-nationalized subsidiary of France's Orano on the international market directly.
The move appears to formally sever ties with Orano and revoke what little claim Orano still had to its investments in Niger.
It also opens the door for Niger's junta to embrace Russia as its eager new uranium mining partner. The junta has also been in talks with Iran.

U.S. economy

Americans spent $11.8 billion online on Black Friday, marking a 9% increase over last year's total.
However, that rise masks two divergent trends: total Black Friday online order volumes were actually slightly down compared to last year, but far higher average unit prices overtook the effect of lower volumes to result in this year's higher total value spent.