Middle East

• Hamas's political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, called on Palestinians in the West Bank and Jerusalem to defy Israeli restrictions around the Al Aqsa mosque (which were put in place after previous round of clashes there) and march to the mosque at the start of Ramadan next weekend. That could lead to fresh clashes there - especially if Israel approves new restrictions on Arabs visiting the site.
• According to CNN, some American officials are concerned that Israel could be planning a ground incursion into southern Lebanon in the late spring or early summer if its diplomatic efforts to push Hezbollah out of rocket range of their shared border fail. The U.S. is mediating talks between Israel and Lebanon about a border buffer zone that aim to preempt a ground operation.
• An Israeli incursion into Lebanon would be even less likely if Hamas and Israel can reach a ceasefire deal: Reuters reported that Hezbollah plans to "immediately" stop firing rockets into northern Israel the "moment the truce is declared" in Gaza. That's consistent with prior statements by Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah.

• Supporters of late opposition leader Alexey Navalny are planning to hold a funeral for him tomorrow - if Russian authorities allow it.
• There are rumors that Wagner Group personnel are stealing flowers laid in Navalny's memory and placing them on the grave of their deceased leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, instead. That's actually somewhat fitting, because Prigozhin was also killed by the Kremlin - even more directly than Navalny was, it seems - and he didn't get much of a memorial either.

• China approved amendments to its state secrets law that will make it riskier for foreign businesses to operate in the country: it expands the law to allow authorities to target anyone spreading "work secrets" - information that "will cause certain adverse effects if leaked" - in addition to already-vaguely-defined "state secrets."
• Analysts fear (with good reason) that Beijing will use the expanded law to punish foreign companies that don't follow its commands once the amended version goes into effect in May.
• Separately, another giant Chinese property developer - Country Garden - is facing liquidation after failing to repay a loan worth around $200 million. A Hong Kong court will hear its case in mid-May.

• EU asylum applications rose 18% from 2022 to 2023, driven by record numbers of Palestinian asylum seekers - in addition to normal levels of Syrian and Afghan applications. Germany received almost one-third of the total claims.

• Supporters of Chad's transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno, traded attacks with supporters of his cousin and rival, Yaya Dillo, and it escalated quickly: Dillo was reportedly killed by his cousin's security forces today. Dillo's allies are outraged and will likely continue to fight against Mahamat Deby Itno's government.