BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Sep 11th 2025

Nepal

The leaders of Nepal's Gen Z protests met with the military yesterday to propose a seemingly constructive path forward.
They want Nepal's popular former chief justice Sushila Karki to take over from the country's aging political elite - who protesters accuse of rampant corruption - until fresh elections can be held to reinstate a new democratically-elected leadership.
Karki said she would accept the challenge, though the military has yet to confirm its agreement to the proposal. Demonstrations have largely dissipated and Kathmandu is returning to normal.

Ukraine

Early yesterday, Poland invoked NATO's Article 4 to shoot down at least nine of the ~19 or so Russian drones that entered its airspace overnight, marking the first time NATO jets engaged enemy aircraft in alliance airspace.
Investigators found all nine drones that they examined to be unarmed dummies of the sort Russia often uses to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses, but it's still unclear why so many would've entered Polish airspace at once - even amidst the barrage of 415 drones that Russia launched at Ukraine that night.
Russia's defense ministry claimed it had "not planned" for any drones to cross the border and dubiously claimed that the drones don't have a far enough range to reach Poland anyway (clearly they do).
Perhaps one or two drones might deviate from their planned flight path, but it's highly unlikely that so many would accidentally stray over a NATO border. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk called the incident a "large-scale provocation."

Brazil

The first two of five Supreme Court judges hearing Jair Bolsonaro's trial found the ex-president guilty of criminal conspiracy for trying to overturn the 2022 election he lost.
A third judge voted to annul the case, citing the court's "absolute lack of jurisdiction" and criticizing how the trial was conducted.
The two judges yet to issue a verdict were appointed by Bolsonaro's successor and political nemesis, Pres. Lula, and are expected to find Bolsonaro guilty, thus reaching a majority conviction. Bolsonaro maintains his innocence on all charges.

Sahel

Human Rights Watch (HRW) issued a new report yesterday warning of a worrisome recent escalation in attacks by Islamic State in the Sahel Province (IS-Sahel) against civilians in Niger's restive Tillaberi region.
HRW found that IS-Sahel killed over 127 civilians in five separate attacks from May to July. Over half those deaths occurred in one particularly terrible attack on a mosque in Manda village in June.
The witnesses HRW interviewed for its report criticized Niger's military leadership for failing to do enough to prevent the attacks - despite their repeated requests for protection and even warnings of imminent assaults. That's a particularly damning criticism for the junta, which justified overthrowing Niger's civilian government for its failure to quell the same insurgencies the junta is now struggling to contain.

Trade

The Financial Times reported that Pres. Trump asked the European Union (EU) to impose severe tariffs of up to 100% on India and China for importing Russian oil, and said the U.S. would "mirror" Europe's levies.
The EU is unlikely to rush to grant Trump's request. As Reuters pointed out, "the EU treats tariffs in a different way to sanctions and only imposes them after an investigation typically lasting months to establish a legally sound justification."
Trump enacts new tariffs much faster than that, so I'm not sure why he would wait for the EU to make the first move. Perhaps he feels EU support would add symbolic weight to his campaign to pressure buyers of Russian oil, or perhaps he thinks his tariffs on both countries have reached their limit for now (India now faces stiff 50% tariffs on exports to the U.S., and tariffs on China remain paused until at least Nov. 10, pending trade talks).