Ukraine

• Ukrainian officials say Russia is preparing a new offensive to capture the Donbas with a troop strength within Ukraine that's now around twice the size of the initial invasion force at over 320,000 - and another 150,000 to 250,000 reservists ready to join it.
• Ukraine's defense minister thinks Russia could "try something" on the Feb. 24 anniversary of the start of its invasion. Ukraine probably won't have its new Western tanks yet.
• The UK followed the U.S. in declining to offer Ukraine fighter jets "for now." France was still open to the idea but hasn't committed jets yet.

• The U.S. accused Russia of breaching the New START nuclear treaty - the last remaining nuclear agreement between the two countries - which together hold 90% of the world's nuclear stockpile.
• New START expires in 2026, and the U.S. hopes to negotiate an extension to it after that. However, if the U.S. and Russia can't even agree on compliance now, extension negotiations will be challenging.

• The U.S. and the Philippines announced a plan to increase U.S. troop presence on four bases in the Philippines as a counter to China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. Of the U.S.'s five treaty allies in Asia, the Philippines is the closest one to Taiwan.

• Guinea's junta said that work would restart on the massive Simandou iron ore complex in March. Work was halted in July 2022 in an effort to get Simandou's shareholders - including Rio Tinto and several Chinese firms - to agree to a joint venture that includes plans for a railroad to export the ore.
• Junta leader Col. Doumbouya visited China Jan. 11 to 22, and was apparently able to secure China's commitment to finalize an amenable agreement by Feb. 28.
• The project's original timeline - finishing infrastructure by Dec. 2024 and starting production by Mar. 31, 2025 - looks highly ambitious, if not impossible.

• There were reports that Visit Saudi - the Saudi Arabian government's tourism brand - will be a key sponsor of the 2023 Women's World Cup in Australia. That's interesting given Saudi's record on women's rights: only five years ago it was illegal for women to watch live football games there.
• The NYT called Saudi's FIFA sponsorship "sportwashing" and a former captain of the Australian men's football team likened it to "Exxon sponsoring COP28 or McDonald’s a healthy eating or anti-obesity symposium."