Posted by BW Actual on Mar 19th 2025
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Ukraine
- Presidents Trump and Putin spoke by phone yesterday. Trump sought Putin's agreement to the 30-day partial (sea, air, front lines) ceasefire proposal that Ukraine has already conditionally accepted, but Putin only agreed to pause attacks on energy and infrastructure targets for 30 days: i.e., Ukraine would stop targeting oil and gas facilities inside Russia, and Russia would stop attacks on Ukraine's energy grid.
- Ukraine indicated it would accept the diluted proposal - though it had wanted a more comprehensive ceasefire - so it seems locked in. However, both sides accused the other of taking parting shots at soon-to-be-off-limits targets after the Trump-Putin call secured Putin's assent.
- The White House is hopeful that this is the first step towards a full ceasefire: Special Envoy Steve Witkoff - who's been negotiating extensively with Putin - said Putin was close to agreeing to a Black Sea maritime ceasefire too, and added that he thinks "it's a relatively short distance to a full ceasefire from there."
- That short distance may not be easy to close, though. One major remaining impasse is Putin's new "key condition" that the U.S. and Ukraine's other allies cut off all military and intelligence support for Ukraine. The White House seems ready to sever U.S. support, but Ukraine's European allies are discussing increasing their support for Ukraine instead. Without foreign support, Ukraine would be significantly weakened and vulnerable to future Russian assaults.
- Putin also wants Ukraine to pause all mobilization and rearmament during a temporary ceasefire - a condition Ukraine has adamantly refused before, but could probably be cajoled to accept.
DRC
- After the Rwanda-led M23 pulled out of an Angola-mediated summit that was due to start yesterday, DRC's Pres. Tshisekedi and Rwanda's Pres. Kagame instead met directly in Doha for surprise peace talks.
- Following their summit, Tshisekedi and Kagame issued a joint statement reaffirming their commitment to an "immediate and unconditional ceasefire" in eastern DRC, and agreeing to continue peace talks.
- Tshisekedi certainly would have favored direct talks with Kagame over talks with the M23: DRC has long insisted it would only negotiate directly with Rwanda and not with Rwanda's rebel proxies.
- Kagame may also prefer it this way: he can pretend to want a ceasefire while continuing to (increasingly implausibly) deny that he can do anything to bring it about - despite being commander-in-chief of the Rwandan Defense Force that's leading the fighting in DRC.
Gaza
- Hamas's health ministry said that Israel's strikes yesterday killed over 400 Gazans, making it one of the deadliest days of the war yet. However, both sides still seem to prefer a return to ceasefire negotiations over a return to open conflict.
Turkey
- Turkish police arrested Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu - a prominent opposition figure and potential rival to Pres. Erdogan in 2028 elections - on charges of corruption and terrorism.
- Prosecutors issued warrants to arrest around 100 other opposition figures from Imamoglu's Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party, in what Erdogan's critics claim is an effort to crack down on political challengers ahead of potential early elections [Imamoglu, in particular, was likely to win the CHP's primary on Sunday, which could position him to run against Erdogan in early elections].
Mexico
- Mexican police arrested Francisco Javier Román-Bardales - a leader of the MS-13 gang and one of the FBI's "Top Ten" most wanted fugitives - and promptly extradited him to the U.S. to face trial.
- FBI Director Kash Patel called his arrest and extradition "a major victory both for our law enforcement partners and for a safer America."
Yemen
- The U.S. continued airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen yesterday and today, aiming at strongholds in Saada where Houthi leaders are believed to be hiding out.
- Pres. Trump vowed to keep striking at the Houthis until they stop targeting Red Sea shipping, but the Houthis defiantly declared they intend to expand their attacks on Israel-linked targets (or rather, targets they imagine to be linked to Israel) until the "aggression" against Gaza stops.
- A Houthi spokesman claimed - with neither evidence nor coherence - that the group had targeted an Israeli air base with a ballistic missile and had successfully struck the U.S.S. Harry S. Truman carrier and other U.S. warships in its group, thwarting the U.S. air assault. No Israeli air base or U.S. warship reported any damage from incoming Houthi fire.
Syria
- International donors pledged nearly €6.0 billion ($6.5 billion) in aid for Syria after a hasty EU-organized summit on Monday.
- That might sound like a lot, but it's less than the €7.5 billion ($8.1 billion) the same donors pledged last year for Syria - when it was still under deposed Pres. Assad's iron grip and already plagued by donor fatigue.
- Many donors want to see interim president Ahmed al Sharaa make firmer commitments to democracy and good governance - or at least offer more clarity into how he plans to govern - before they pledge further support.