BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF - Blackwater Worldwide

Posted by BW Actual on Nov 3rd 2025

Coming up this week

The U.S. votes in mid-term elections on Tuesday. The most-watched races include New York City's mayoral contest, heated gubernatorial polls in Virginia and New Jersey, and California's Prop. 50 on redistricting (to supporters) / gerrymandering (to those opposed).
Sunday marks the 36th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Commodity and coin market prices

Gaza

Hamas returned the remains of three more hostages, including U.S. citizen Omer Neutra.
Despite Israeli claims otherwise, Hamas maintains that it's working as fast as it can to locate and return the remains of the other eight hostages who died in captivity over the course of the two-year war.
Meanwhile, an Israeli airstrike killed one man who was allegedly threatening Israeli troops near Gaza City.

Lebanon

Israel is growing frustrated with the Lebanese government's lack of progress disarming Hezbollah, and has taken up the task of targeting Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon with near-daily airstrikes in recent weeks.
Lebanon's Pres. Aoun resents the intrusions and wants Israeli troops to leave the five areas of southern Lebanon that they still occupy. Aoun has called on Israel to negotiate a more permanent ceasefire than the fragile (but lasting) truce they signed a year ago.
However, Israel seems uninterested in negotiating while Aoun's government is failing to uphold its commitment to contain and disarm Hezbollah. [Analysts point out that Aoun's Lebanese Armed Forces are weaker than Hezbollah and he can't do much to force disarmament.]
Prime Minister Netanyahu warned of further Israeli action against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, and blamed Iran for backing both Hezbollah and the Houthis.

Tanzania

Tanzania's election commission confirmed Samia Suluhu Hassan - who appointed its commissioners - as the winner of last week's presidential election, with an unsurprising 98% of the vote. The commission also dubiously claimed that turnout was around 75% higher than in 2020, when voters had more of a choice of candidates.
Hassan's win was essentially uncontested this time, since her government barred both real rivals from running. It also tried to prevent unhappy Tanzanians from protesting against the election by imposing a nationwide curfew, restricting internet access, and condescendingly calling critics of the undemocratic poll "neither responsible nor patriotic."
The main opposition party, CHADEMA - whose leader is imprisoned awaiting sentencing on spurious charges - claims security officers have killed hundreds of protesters. Demonstrations continue, despite Hassan's crackdown.

China

U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said China made a "real mistake" by proposing since-postponed export control restrictions on rare earths, since the threat alone motivated the U.S. to get serious about finding alternative sources for its rare earths needs.
Australia is one of the alternative sources being developed: Pres. Trump and Prime Minister Albanese recently signed an agreement to jointly develop Australia's rare earth supplies.
Incidentally, Bessent's comments felt like a close parallel to the effect that U.S. export controls on advanced computing chips have had on Chinese chipmaking, where supply restrictions forced fast-track domestic innovators to quickly catch up to technologies they were barred from importing.

Venezuela

During a wide-ranging interview, Pres. Trump told CBS's Norah O’Donnell that he doubts the U.S. will go to war with Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, but said Maduro's authoritarian government has "been treating us very badly" and said he thought Maduro's days are numbered.

Afghanistan

A magnitude-6.3 earthquake struck northern Afghanistan, killing at least 20. The full extent of the damage is still unclear, but there are reports of damage to Mazar-i-Sharif's Blue Mosque.

Baseball

The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Toronto Blue Jays in Game 7 of a tight World Series that thrilled even non-baseball fans. That makes the Dodgers the first back-to-back Major League Baseball champs since the Yankees won a third consecutive World Series in 2000.