War in Ukraine

• Ukraine and Russia agreed to open seven humanitarian corridors near Kyiv, including one that would help civilians in Mariupol evacuate to Zaporizhzhia—rather than to Russia. As before, these corridors will depend on Russian troops respecting the ceasefires underlying the deal…a majority of similar corridor plans have failed because Russian troops started firing on evacuees.
• Ukraine says it destroyed the Orsk, a large Russian military support ship, at the Russian-controlled port of Berdyansk on the Sea of Azov. A second Russian ship there appeared to sustain damage in the same attack, and it and a third ship apparently fled the port. The port of Berdyansk is critical to Russian supply lines, which were already struggling to remain intact before these Ukrainian strikes.
• Ukrainian reports and Western intelligence both suggest Ukraine is making progress fighting back against Russia around Kyiv, and have perhaps turned the tables and surrounded pockets of Russian troops who had been trying to encircle the capital.

Pressure on Russia

• The U.S. and its allies announced new sanctions on Russian defense companies, lawmakers, and the CEO of Russia’s largest bank; and Pres. Biden called for the G20 to kick Russia out.
• In announcing new sanctions on Wagner Group, the UK said Wagner had been “reportedly tasked” with assassinating Pres. Zelensky, but it didn’t provide any evidence or detail. Zelensky himself made similar claims early in the war, and may have shared whatever evidence he had with the UK.
• However, Pres. Zelensky also reportedly asked the U.S. to put its plans to sanction Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich on hold: Zelensky apparently believes Abramovich may be able to help negotiate a peace deal with Russia, and there are rumors he’s already acting as a go-between relaying messages to both sides. He’s also the only Russian oligarch who has publicly said he’s pushing Moscow for a peaceful end to the war, though that didn’t stop the UK and EU from slapping sanctions on him already.

China, Afghanistan, and India

• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi used his trip to Kabul to present China as a friendly source of no-strings-attached support for the Taliban regime. Chinese state media summarized his Belt and Road-esque talking points well: “China never interferes in Afghanistan's internal affairs, never pursues self-interest in Afghanistan, and never seeks a sphere of influence…China will help Afghanistan realize true independence and self-development.”
• This is part of China’s effort to fill the power gap the U.S. left in Afghanistan when it withdrew last fall; in return for its “help,” China expects to win access to Afghanistan’s natural resources and secure the Taliban regime’s loyalty.
• Yi also paid a quiet visit to New Delhi, marking the most senior Chinese visit to India since border clashes between the two countries began in June 2020. Indian officials pressed Yi for disengagement at the border, which they said would be the key to good relations.

North Korea

• Yesterday North Korea tested a banned nuclear-capable intercontinental missile for the first time since 2017. This intercontinental missile could stretch North Korea’s nuclear strike range to the U.S. West Coast, which is obviously extremely concerning to U.S. officials (however this test missile only flew 700 miles (1,100 km) before crashing into the sea).

Somalia

• Just a day after attacking Mogadishu’s main diplomatic compound at the Halane military base, Al Shabaab carried out two suicide bombings at the Lama-Galay military base in Beledweyne, central Somalia. The blasts targeted lawmakers campaigning for ongoing regional parliamentary elections, and they killed at least 48—including two candidates.

Ethiopia

• Ethiopia declared an immediate “humanitarian truce” to reopen aid flows into Tigray after four months without aid. This could be the beginning of the end of the 17-month war: Tigray’s provisional government responded with a promise to implement an immediate ceasefire if sufficient aid arrived “within a reasonable timeframe.”