BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Jan 14th 2025

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

North Korea

  • Pres. Zelensky released a video of a Ukrainian official interrogating the two North Korean soldiers Ukraine captured in Kursk, via a translator.
  • The North Koreans' responses seemed to corroborate something South Korean analysts had guessed: that Pyongyang is keeping its involvement in Russia's war a secret from its own people, and even hiding the extent of its involvement from the soldiers it sent to fight in the war.
  • One of the captured POWs said he didn't know he was fighting against Ukraine, and claimed that his contingent was only told they "would train as if we were in real combat" as they were sent to the front line - not that they would face real combat. [Media reports on these POW interviews caution that captured soldiers may not be speaking freely, and that's doubly true for captured North Korean soldiers, who are probably unacquainted with the concept of speaking freely.]
  • Separately, North Korea launched "several" unremarkable short-range missiles into the sea, according to South Korea.
Gaza
  • Following a call with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Pres. Biden said Israel and Hamas are "on the brink" of a ceasefire deal. Unnamed Israeli and Palestinian officials confirmed that a deal seems close - though we've heard that before, only to see a final agreement slip away.
  • The rumored terms of the current proposal include:
    • Hamas will free three hostages on day one; then Israel will withdraw from populated areas.
    • One week later, Hamas will free four more hostages and Israel will allow displaced northern Gazans to return home (with restrictions and under mediator monitoring).
    • For the first phase of 42 days, Israel will keep troops in the Philadelphi corridor and preserve an 800 meter buffer zone in the east and north.
    • Negotiations for the next two phases will begin on day 16.
  • Around 200 Israeli soldiers have signed a letter threatening to lay down their arms and refuse to fight if their country doesn't commit to reaching a ceasefire deal with Hamas. That's a tiny share of Israel's ~170,000 active military personnel, but their grievances are getting outsize media attention.
AI
  • The Biden Administration enacted new limits on the number of artificial intelligence (AI) chips that tech companies can sell to certain countries that aren't among 18 close U.S. allies (who are exempt from the new limits and include the UK, Canada, South Korea, and Taiwan) nor among sanctioned countries that already face U.S. tech export restrictions (e.g. Russia and China).
  • Some key U.S. partners - including Mexico and Israel - find themselves in the middle group that will now face new limits on AI chip purchases, leading to complaints from the European Union and from tech companies that must now comply with limits on their sales.
China
  • Beijing announced that it reached a record $1 trillion trade surplus in 2024 as it exported vast quantities of cheap goods totalling $3.6 trillion while its citizens pinched their pennies and bought little from domestic or foreign sources (imports totalled $2.6 trillion). The last year that China ran a trade deficit was 1993; it has been a net exporter ever since.
Venezuela
  • Pres. Maduro's Foreign Minister blamed the opposition - without evidence - for inciting attacks against Venezuelan government buildings in five countries: Portugal, Germany, Spain, Colombia and Costa Rica. [There was indeed a minor attack against the Venezuelan consulate in Portugal over the weekend, but it's not clear whether or when the other alleged attacks took place.]
  • The main opposition in Venezuela didn't comment on the accusation of its involvement in any attacks abroad - its leaders are busy avoiding political imprisonment at home.
  • In addition, Venezuela's attorney general requested an arrest warrant and Interpol red notice for Leopoldo Lopez, a former political prisoner in his home country who now lives in exile in Spain. Lopez angered Maduro and his government again over the weekend by tweeting (X'ing?) that ex-Colombian Pres. Uribe's support for military intervention in Venezuela should be "seriously considered."