BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Aug 5th 2024

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Coming Up This Week

  • Presumptive Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is expected to announce her running mate today or tomorrow.
  • The U.S. Central Bank and Bank of Japan will make interest rate decisions on Tuesday, followed by the Bank of England on Wednesday. The U.S. will probably wait until September to cut rates.
  • The Olympics Closing Ceremony begins at 8 pm local time (2 pm ET) on Sunday, and will reportedly feature Tom Cruise rappelling off the Stade de France.
Commodity Prices
  • Aluminum: $2,264/ton
  • Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $23,500/ton
  • Cobalt: $26,500/ton (this recently hit an eight-year low on surging production and weak downstream demand)
  • Copper: $9,056/ton
  • Gold: $/toz
  • Lead: $2,023/ton
  • Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.97/MMbtu
  • WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $73.52/barrel
  • Zinc: $2,653/ton
9/11
  • U.S. SecDef Austin abruptly revoked the plea deal military prosecutors signed with 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed and two of his co-conspirators, in which the accused agreed to plead guilty in exchange for avoiding the death penalty.
  • Many families of 9/11 victims were outraged that the plea deal would let the men who killed their relatives avoid facing trial, and their anger put political pressure on Austin to pull rank and revoke the deal.
Bangladesh
  • Bangladesh's PM, Sheikh Hasina, reluctantly resigned and fled the country to India, following weeks of deadly protests.
  • It seemed like her police had things under control after she withdrew the controversial state job quota program that triggered the initial outcry, but now it looks like the calm was only holding because of a brutal police crackdown that killed at least 270.
  • It's not clear what will happen now. Army chief Waker-Uz-Zaman will address the country later today, but some analysts have pointed out that the military has seemed uncomfortable with the police crackdown and may not want to fill the power gap Hasina left behind.
Venezuela
  • Pres. Maduro's goons claim they can't show proof that he won reelection - with a convenient 51% of the vote - because voting machines were hacked. (Meanwhile, local reports suggest he's hired Chinese hackers to falsify results that corroborate his claims.)
  • The opposition has published actas representing 80% of voting stations, and those show that its candidate, Edmundo González, overwhelmingly defeated Maduro with around 70% of the vote.
  • Foreign governments and media outlets are largely believing the opposition's claims over Maduro's. The EU announced late yesterday that it will not recognize Maduro's victory.
  • Chile's Pres. Boric and Brazil's Pres. Lula are meeting today and tomorrow, and Venezuela watchers will be interested in what the two leftist leaders say about Maduro and the election. Boric has already called Maduro's fabricated results "difficult to believe;" if he and Lula remain critical of the poll then it will add to Maduro's isolation.
  • Meanwhile in Venezuela, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado left hiding to join rallies in Caracas.
  • There are local reports that Maduro's police are stopping people on the streets - especially in areas with a strong opposition presence - and searching their phones for evidence of pro-opposition posts, arresting those found to have expressed an opinion against Maduro's dictatorship online.
Ukraine
  • Ukraine claimed it sunk a Russian Kilo-class submarine and struck a Russian S-400 anti-aircraft battery in Crimea.
  • The S-400 strike could put the Kerch Strait Bridge - which Russia uses to supply its forces in Ukraine - at risk of another Ukrainian attack, since S-400s are a key part of Russia's defenses.
  • Separately, Pres. Zelensky confirmed that Ukrainian pilots have started flying donated F-16s in Ukraine. It seems at least four F-16s - of the 85 pledged in total to date - are in Ukraine now, but their usage will be limited by the small number of pilots trained to fly them. Nonetheless, the presence of even four F-16s will help relieve Ukraine's tired air defense systems.
China
  • The U.S. government (USG) sued TikTok and its Chinese parent company, ByteDance, for violating child privacy laws by knowingly allowing kids under 13 create and use accounts without parental consent.
  • This is a separate issue from the USG's main concern with TikTok, which is that the app could (and perhaps does) share user data with the Chinese government.
Israel
  • Israel is tensely awaiting Iran's response to its assassination of Hamas military leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
  • Iran promised to "take vengeance," and there's much talk of "bloodlust" in Persian media.
  • PM Netanyahu warned Iran that Israel is "prepared very strongly" for Iran's response - and to re-retaliate for it.
DRC
  • M23 rebels captured the Congolese town of Ishasha on the border with Uganda yesterday - the same day a ceasefire between DRC and Rwanda, which backs the rebels, went into effect (the rebels captured Ishasha without a fight, so perhaps they didn't technically violate the ceasefire).
  • Around 90 Congolese soldiers fled Ishasha into Uganda, which says it will evaluate and then expel the absconders.
Sahel
  • The U.S. will leave its last military base in Niger today, far ahead of a Sep. 15 deadline agreed with the junta.
  • Separately, a spokesman for Ukraine's intelligence agency implied that Ukraine gave Tuareg rebels "all the information they needed, which allowed [them] to carry out their operation against the Russian war criminals" in the Sahel incident that saw scores of Wagner mercenaries and Malian soldiers killed late last month.
  • Mali said it would sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine over the proxy battle.
Somalia
  • Al Shabaab claimed responsibility for an attack on a crowded beachfront in Lido, Mogadishu over the weekend that left at least 32 dead. Al Shabaab has repeatedly targeted Lido, which is popular with officials.
Afghanistan
  • Female Afghan Olympic sprinter Kimia Yousofi finished dead last in her 100-meter heat on Friday, but the handwritten message she revealed on the back of her bib was more important than her speed: it said "Education. Sport. Our Rights." Yousofi lives and trains outside of Afghanistan because of the Taliban's barbaric restrictions on women's education, sport, and rights.