Gaza

• After a brief delay, Israel's security cabinet met today to discuss the Gaza ceasefire deal, and Prime Minister Netanyahu reported that they will approve the deal.
• While Netanyahu initially blamed the cabinet's delay on Hamas's "last-minute blackmail," it now seems that Netanyahu was also concerned that his far-right allies - led by national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir - would vote against the deal...and perhaps leave Netanyahu's coalition over it.
• Despite hard-liner opposition, Netanyahu has enough votes to approve the agreement. If more hard-liners turn against it, opposition lawmakers have committed to replacing their votes to approve the ceasefire.
• The NYT shared a good overview of the public draft of the deal here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/world/middleeast/gaza-ceasefire-israel-hamas.html. It mirrors the terms that were leaked last week:
  • Phase 1, first six weeks: Hamas will release 33 hostages - some of whom may be dead - in several stages and Israel will release multiple Palestinian prisoners for each hostage freed. Israel will shift its forces east and displaced northern Gazans can start to return home on day seven, helped by aid flows expanded to 600 trucks per day.
  • Phase 2, next six weeks: Israel and Hamas will declare a "permanent cessation of hostilities" and Israel will fully withdraw from Gaza. Hamas will free the remaining living hostages in exchange for more Palestinian prisoners.
  • Phase 3, final six weeks: Hamas would trade the rest of the hostages - dead or alive - in exchange for a three- to five-year rebuilding plan for Gaza.

• Iran didn't seem to have a big role in Hamas's ceasefire negotiations with Israel, though the Revolutionary Guards called the final deal a "great victory" for Palestinian resistance after it was inked.
• Perhaps to show that he had better things to do than wait around for Israel's cabinet to approve the Gaza ceasefire, Pres. Pezeshkian is in Russia today to meet with Pres. Putin to discuss their "strategic partnership."

• U.S. officials accused Sudan's military of using chemical weapons against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on at least two separate occasions.
• The U.S. plans to sanction the head of Sudan's military, Gen. Abdel Fattah al Burhan, for bombing civilian areas and using starvation as a weapon. Al Burhan's RSF rival, Lt. Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (aka Hemedti), was similarly sanctioned last week after the U.S. accused his RSF of genocide.

• Pres. Maduro delivered his annual address to the nation yesterday. In it, he noted that his security forces have detained over 150 alleged mercenaries from 25 countries for conspiring to commit "terrorism against the Venezuelan people." As usual, he offered no further details to support his allegations.
• NYT columnist Bret Stephens penned an op-ed earlier this week (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/14/opinion/maduro-venezuela-trump.html) advocating for a "combination of a powerful incentive and a credible threat" to depose Maduro:

"The incentive is an offer that he and his henchmen go into permanent exile, probably to Cuba or Russia, along with a guarantee of amnesty for all Venezuelan military and intelligence officials who stay behind and pledge loyalty to a government led by the legitimate president. The threat is U.S. military intervention of the sort that in 1990 swiftly ended the regime of the Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega. That could be followed by extradition and prosecution in U.S. courts..."

• China's state statisticians reported economic growth of 5% in the fourth quarter of 2024, which exactly meets central planners' growth target for the year.
• As of the end of Q3, it looked as though growth would miss its target, but a sharp rise in export orders and stimulus measures in the fourth quarter helped reach it - at least according to the official numbers. Some economists - both within China and abroad - cast doubt on the official growth figure and suggested true economic growth may have fallen short of the target in 2024.

• A Pakistani court sentenced ex-Prime Minister (and cricketer) Imran Khan to 14 years in prison for corruption charges that Khan insists are politically motivated. Khan's wife was sentenced to seven years for her role in the offense, which was related to a charity Khan started during his term.

• Mining giants Rio Tinto and Glencore are reportedly exploring a merger, which would be the largest-ever transaction in the industry. Details are still unclear.