BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Jan 3rd 2024

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Hamas

  • An apparent Israeli drone strike on a suburb south of Beirut killed Hamas's deputy leader - Saleh al-Arouri - and at least two of its senior military leaders.
  • Al-Arouri had been in Israel's crosshairs for years - Israel says he orchestrated Hamas attacks in the West Bank as far back as 2014 - but Hamas said he was also recently "at the heart of negotiations" over releasing hostages.
  • Israel hasn't acknowledged responsibility for the Beirut strike, and probably won't - an acknowledgment could give Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies an excuse to escalate attacks on Israel - but U.S. officials suggested this may be only the first of many Israeli strikes against Hamas operatives outside of Gaza.
  • A top Israeli spokesman emphasized that Israel is "focused on fighting Hamas," which some analysts interpreted as an assurance to Hezbollah that this incursion into Lebanon was a targeted strike and was not intended to open a new front in the war.
  • Separately, The Times of Israel reported that Israeli officials are in talks with several countries, including Congo-Brazzaville, to accept resettled immigrants from Gaza.
  • Resettlement plans are likely to face criticism outside of Israel: yesterday the U.S. State Department vocally objected to similar calls from two Israeli ministers to resettle Gazans, calling their rhetoric "inflammatory and irresponsible."
Horn of Africa
  • Somalia's parliament rejected the deal Somaliland signed with Ethiopia granting landlocked Ethiopia's Navy access to Berbera port for 50 years.
  • Somalia probably objected to a reported condition of the deal requiring Ethiopia to recognize Somaliland's independence from Somalia (Somalia views Somaliland as part of its territory and won't want to give up its claim).
  • Al Shabaab also spoke out against the deal, complaining that it "violates Somali sovereignty" and threatening that "blood will be spilled over it." As Long War Journal explained: "Shabaab is playing up Somali nationalism to garner support."
  • Eritrea and Egypt will also object to another country having a major naval presence in the Red Sea, and Djibouti won't be happy about Ethiopia - which pays it about $1.5 billion per year for port access - now having another port option.
China
  • Taiwan reported three Chinese balloons crossing over the island yesterday, including one that flew over a key Taiwanese air base.
  • This is the first time Taiwan reported Chinese balloons over its land, although over the past month, it cautiously reported several "weather balloons" flying over the strait separating it from China.
  • This time Taiwanese officials declined to comment on the purpose of the balloons - but with presidential and parliamentary elections coming up on Jan. 13, many analysts are speculating they're spy balloons.
Yemen
  • A Malta-flagged container ship reported three explosions off its port side while sailing past Houthi-controlled Taiz, Yemen.
  • Meanwhile, Iran dispatched a frigate to the Red Sea in what seems to be an indirect challenge to the U.S.-led naval coalition patrolling those waters. Analysts don't think the Iranian ship would directly confront U.S. or coalition forces, but its presence raises the risk of inadvertent confrontation.
Ukraine
  • Russia launched another barrage of strikes at Ukrainian infrastructure targets, including some using hypersonic missiles.
  • Analysts suspect Russia is repeating last year's intense mid-winter bombing campaign designed to weaken morale and hamper military supply chains in Ukraine.