Posted by BW Actual on Feb 13th 2025
BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF
Ukraine
- Presidents Trump and Putin held what Trump called a "lengthy and highly productive phone call" yesterday in which they agreed to launch talks to end the war in Ukraine imminently.
- Trump also told reporters he and Putin plan to meet in person soon - "probably in Saudi Arabia" and "not in the too distant future."
- The WSJ reported that Chinese officials have recently been floating a superficially similar plan for the U.S. and Russia to negotiate a peace for Ukraine - but with the key difference that Ukraine would be shut out of talks under the Chinese proposal. That's a non-starter for the West, which views Chinese involvement with suspicion and demands Ukraine be part of a peace deal.
- To that end, Trump also spoke with Pres. Zelensky yesterday to discuss "the possibilities of achieving peace." Zelensky's statement after their call suggested he seems open to what he heard: "Ukraine more than anyone wants peace. We are defining our joint steps with America to halt Russian aggression and ensure a reliable, lasting peace. As President Trump said, ‘Let’s get it done.’ "
- Separately, Ukraine has just offered lucrative military contracts - comprising one million hryvnias ($24,000), elite training, and social benefits - to volunteers under 25 who enlist in the army now.
- Kyiv likely saw this as a more politically palatable alternative to lowering the draft age from 25 to 18; however, it angered some soldiers who already signed up to less lucrative enlistment offers. One veteran soldier complained on Facebook that the new offer "devalues all those who voluntarily joined the army at the beginning of a full-scale war."
Gaza
- Early reports suggest Hamas is prepared to bow to Israeli and American pressure and continue its hostage releases on schedule, with the next one due to take place midday Saturday.
- Both sides seem keen to maintain their fragile peace. Israel said it was "optimistic" that the deal will hold, and Hamas agreed that it wants the deal to continue.
- Meanwhile, Egypt said it would present its own "comprehensive vision" for rebuilding Gaza as an alternative to the one Pres. Trump has tabled, which Arab leaders have rejected because it calls for Gazans to be resettled. The Egyptian plan would call on Arab countries, the EU, and the UN to help rebuild Gaza without displacing Gazans.
South Sudan
- South Sudan's Pres. Salva Kiir abruptly fired two of his five vice presidents, his spy chief, his health minister, and several other senior officials earlier this week. He gave no reason for the sackings.
- Deputy president Riek Machar - Kiir's political rival - complained that the firings violated their tenuous 2018 power-sharing deal that ended South Sudan's civil war by distributing power among myriad rival factions (which is precisely why Juba has five vice presidents and a president and deputy president who despise each other).
- Machar threatened to quit the peace deal if the fired officials aren't reinstated. If he does, Kiir's government and the armistice could unravel quickly.
DRC
- Corneille Nangaa, who leads the Alliance Fleuve Congo (AFC) rebel coalition that includes M23, met with unnamed Catholic church officials over the weekend to hear the clergymen's pleas for dialogue - which is perhaps another reason we saw a lull in fighting earlier this week.
- The M23 has since resumed its march towards Bukavu, but the powerful Catholic church hasn't given up on its push for peace. Pres. Tshisekedi said on X yesterday that he also talked to church leaders and is open to the church's outreach as long as it's "inclusive."
Syria
- Pres. Putin held his first direct call with Pres. al Sharaa, Syria's new leader who overthrew Putin's former ally in Damascus.
- They must have spoken about the two key Russian military bases Putin wants to keep in Syria, but neither side shared details about what, if anything, was clarified or decided about the bases during their call.
- It seemed to be a friendly chat, though: al Sharaa's office said Putin invited foreign minister Asaad al-Shaibani (not al Sharaa) to Moscow to continue their discussions.
Sudan
- While Pres. Putin was talking to Syria's Pres. al Sharaa about keeping Russia's naval base at Tartus, Sudan's foreign minister was visiting Moscow to discuss a long-touted proposal for a Russian naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast.
- The idea lost steam when Russia built up Tartus as an alternative, but now that Russia is at risk of losing Tartus (though it probably won't), it likely wants to secure a backup base in the region.
- It seems the visit was a success for Russia: Sudan's foreign minister, Ali al Sharif, said afterwards: "We agreed, we agreed, we reached an agreement on everything."
Russia
- German media reported an incident of suspected sabotage in which several dozen kilos (2.2 times that in lbs) were seemingly deliberately dumped into a German corvette-class warship's engine.
- The German navy's inspector told the press that more than one warship had been sabotaged. While he didn't explicitly blame Russia, he strongly implied that Russia was the top suspect with oblique references like: "The growing threat from Russia is more urgent at the beginning of 2025 than it was two years ago."
- Separately, the other side of the "exchange" for Marc Fogel's release from Russian prison became clear: the U.S. will release Alexander Vinnik, a convicted Russian cybercriminal. In addition, Belarus (whose dictatorial president is Pres. Putin's closest ally) agreed to release three detainees, including one U.S. citizen, in a possibly related bargain.