BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Jan 4th 2023

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Ukraine

  • The NYT estimated that it costs Ukraine up to seven times more to shoot down a Russian drone than it costs Russia to launch one. That raises concern that Ukraine might not be able to afford to shoot them all down indefinitely. Russia has launched around 600 drones since September, including 80 over New Year's weekend alone.
China
  • China's foreign ministry criticized the new travel measures other countries are putting in place to guard against new infections carried by Chinese travelers as the country reopens from years of tight zero-COVID policies.
  • Beijing insinuated that the new measures on Chinese travelers are politically motivated and said it would respond "in accordance with the principle of reciprocity" (in reality, China already has reciprocal measures in place: it still requires incoming travelers to show a negative PCR test from within 48 hours of their departure, which is at least as rigorous as any of the new measures countries have enacted on Chinese travelers recently).
  • The EU is preparing to announce new, coordinated travel measures for Chinese travelers too - in addition to measures several EU countries have already enacted.
Iran
  • Yesterday was the third anniversary of the killing of Iran's Gen. Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq, and Iranian president Raisi commemorated the occasion by warning that "retaliation is obvious" and preparing to publicize a list of 94 U.S. citizens that Iran blames for Soleimani's assassination, including then-president Donald Trump.
  • Iran already retaliated immediately after Soleimani's death by launching missiles at U.S. bases in Iraq - they caused some injuries but no fatalities - and in the tense days after Soleimani died, Iran accidentally shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet - probably believing it to be an incoming missile. It seems unlikely that Iran would launch a meaningful new round of retaliation three years later.
Afghanistan
  • Pakistan's Defense Minister blamed Afghanistan's Taliban government for the recent wave of cross-border terrorist attacks.
  • It's the Pakistani Taliban (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, or TTP) that has claimed most of the violence - and the TTP is essentially fully independent of the Afghan Taliban - but Pakistan says the Afghan Taliban's chaos has allowed TTP jihadists to enjoy refuge in Afghanistan and launch attacks from there.
Crypto
  • Regulators from three different U.S. agencies - the Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency - issued their first-ever joint statement warning banks to be vigilant about fraud and misleading disclosures by crypto firms.
  • They're concerned about "contagion risk" after the collapse of the FTX trading platform disrupted crypto markets.
Other News
  • The U.S. Embassy in Cuba reopened its visa and consular services for the first time since mysterious "sonic attacks" led them to close down in 2017.