Ukraine

• Germany confirmed it plans to send 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.
• The U.S. has pledged 31 M1 Abrams tanks atop the 14 Challengers the UK committed, and other countries may yet add more tanks to the total - but it's still going to fall far short of the 500 tanks that one analyst thinks Ukraine will need to shift the balance on the battlefield (Pres. Zelensky is asking for 300). The donations are symbolically important, though.
• Russia's ambassador to the U.S. said a transfer of U.S. Abrams tanks to Ukraine would be a "blatant provocation." In announcing the commitment, Pres. Biden was careful to caveat that the transfer was not intended to make the war spill over into Russia.
• Separately, Ukraine confirmed its forces have finally retreated from Soledar after several weeks of brutal battle. Russian forces are now one step closer to capturing nearby Bakhmut.

• The European Court of Human Rights decided it can hear a case charging Russia itself with responsibility for the downing of flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014.
• There had been some uncertainty over how much control Moscow had over the militants in the Donetsk People's Republic (eastern Ukraine) who shot the plane down - and Moscow characterized Donetsk as a separatist independent state that acted alone - but the court determined Moscow indeed called the shot(s): one piece of evidence was how easily Donetsk rolled over and welcomed the Russian invasion last year.

• Pyongyang began a five-day lockdown to stop the spread of an unspecified respiratory illness. North Korea already declared victory over COVID in August but is probably seeing a resurgence in cases triggered by China's recent reopening.

• France confirmed it will comply with Burkina Faso's junta's demand for French troops to leave the Sahel country within one month.
• France is thought to have 400 troops in Burkina Faso, including 200 special forces - but they've had little success quelling jihadist attacks.
• Analysts are concerned that Burkina Faso could follow Mali's lead and turn to Wagner Group for security after expelling French troops. Wagner forces have won some battles against militants in Mali, but with heavy civilian casualties.
• That may have already happened: Ghana's Pres. Afuko-Addo thinks Burkina Faso has already signed an agreement with Wagner, and a U.S. official leaked that Burkinabe officials paid a visit to Moscow shortly before announcing the termination of Burkina Faso's security agreement with France.
• If Wagner is already in Burkina Faso, it makes it less likely that France would agree to send troops back there - even if the junta welcomed them back. Instead, French troops from Mali and Burkina Faso will probably consolidate in Niger.

• Italy's Eni is set to sign an $8 billion deal with Libya's National Oil Corp. (NOC) this weekend.
• The NOC is Libya's cash cow and a rare example of semi-agreement among two of Libya's rival leaders: NOC head Farhat Bengdara was reportedly appointed based on a secret agreement between PM Dbeibah and eastern commander Khalifa Haftar.
• Eni could pump up to 850 million cubic feet of gas per day as a result of the agreement, which will help Italy diversify its energy supply away from Russian sources.

• DRC accused Rwanda of a "deliberate act of aggression that amounts to an act of war" for shooting at a Congolese fighter jet that Rwanda says violated its airspace.
• DRC says the Sukhoi-25 in question was minding its own business in Congolese airspace and "attacked while it was beginning its landing on the runway of Goma’s international airport."
• Looking at a map of Goma's airport, the jet quite possibly did enter Rwandan airspace: Goma's runway runs parallel to and within 500 meters of the border, so a normal holding pattern could reasonably extend into Rwandan airspace.

• The U.S. Treasury Department issued a license allowing Trinidad and Tobago to develop the Dragon gas field offshore Venezuela. Trinidad would pay for the gas - reserves of which are estimated at 4.2 trillion cubic feet - in humanitarian aid instead of cash to comply with the U.S. prohibition on cash transfers to Venezuela.