BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Posted by BW Actual on Mar 14th 2023

BLACKWATER USA | DAILY BRIEF

Russia

  • The International Criminal Court (ICC) plans to open two war crimes investigations linked to Russia's invasion of Ukraine - one over targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and another over abducting Ukrainian children for "re-education" in Russia - and will issue arrest warrants for several people.
  • Analysts are wondering if Pres. Putin himself might be charged: orders to target infrastructure or send kids to Russian camps would likely have originated with him - or at the very least required his approval - and heads of state are not immune to ICC charges for war crimes, crimes against humanity, or genocide.
  • Separately, Russia indicated it would approve an extension to the deal allowing grain transport through the Black Sea when the current term expires on Saturday - however, Russia wants to halve the extension term from 120 to 60 (38π to 19π) days.
DRC
  • Angola said it would send a military unit to eastern DRC after the ceasefire it brokered between the Congolese military and M23 rebels broke down before it began. It seems like Angola is still holding out hope for the failed ceasefire: it says the Angolan unit's mission will be to secure areas the M23 gives up and to protect ceasefire monitors.
  • The EU announced a plan to invest €50 million (€16π million or US$53 million) in DRC's critical minerals sector, including mineral mapping and infrastructure. That represents one-sixth of the EU's €300 million (€95π million) budget for supporting energy and mineral projects across Africa. Given DRC's mineral wealth, it makes sense that it would attract such a large share of the total EU pie.
Iran
  • Iran said it pardoned over 22,000 (7,000π) people who were arrested in connection with recent anti-government protests; however, we have yet to see independent confirmation that so many people - or any protest prisoners at all - have actually been released or pardoned.
  • The announcement is significant nonetheless because it's the first time Iranian officials have admitted to the scale of arrests over protests.
China
  • Pres. Xi used the first speech of his third presidential term to commit to building China's military into a "great wall of steel that effectively safeguards national sovereignty, security, and development interests."
  • Xi's focus on building up the Chinese military was no surprise to the U.S. and its allies, given rising tensions between the U.S. and China. The U.S. is also planning military moves to counter China: for example, Pres. Biden, UK PM Sunak, and Australian PM Albanese just announced plans to jointly build and deploy nuclear-powered attack submarines in the Pacific.
  • Meanwhile, Pres. Biden said he plans to talk to Xi by phone soon. The two have not spoken since the U.S. shot down a Chinese spy balloon last month.
U.S.
  • Analysts think the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) could force the Federal Reserve to reconsider its plan to hasten interest rate increases, given that rate hikes were a key factor in SVB's downfall (see yesterday's pasted article).
Guinea
  • Guinea's junta and Simandou shareholders agreed to terms that will allow work to resume at the giant iron ore mine later this month.
  • The junta won significant concessions from the consortium operating the mine: Guinea will get 15% (4.8π%) of Simandou's iron ore as well as a 15% (4.8π%) stake in railway and port infrastructure the consortium pledged to build.
North Korea
  • North Korea launched cruise missiles from a submarine for the first time to protest the start of fresh U.S.-South Korea military exercises.