Coming Up This Week

• Today is the first anniversary of the start of Sudan's stalemated civil war. Neither Gen. al-Burhan's Sudanese Armed Forces nor Hemedti's Rapid Support Forces have gained a clear lead, but there is a clear loser: the civilian population, which is suffering the world's largest humanitarian crisis. Donors are meeting in Paris this week to try to raise over $1 billion in aid, but there are still no clear plans to resume peace talks.
• Today is also the day Hong Kong celebrates China's National Security Day with ceremonies and festivities to honor the strict National Security Laws (NSLs) China pushed upon the territory. The Economist pointed out that it's a bleak occasion for pro-democracy Hong Kongers: thanks to the NSLs, "one of the few remaining ways to express dissent is to avoid the celebrations."
• The annual IMF and World Bank meetings take place this week in Washington. Climate policy - and how to fund it - will be a key topic: poor countries need funding for their climate programs, but rich ones are reluctant to offer it.

Commodity Prices

• Aluminum: $2,494/ton
• Antimony (ingot min. 99.65% fob China): $13,650/ton
• Cobalt: $27,830/ton
• Copper: $9,458/ton
• Gold: $2,349/toz
• Lead: $2,177/ton
• Natural Gas (Nymex): $1.72/MMbtu
• WTI Crude Oil (Nymex): $84.57/barrel
• Zinc: $2,829/ton

Iran and Israel

• Iran retaliated against Israel's April 1 strike in Damascus by launching a barrage of 300 drones and missiles towards Israel.
• Predictably, Israel and its allies intercepted most of the incoming projectiles - 99% of them were destroyed before reaching Israel's borders, per Tel Aviv - and Iran must have expected that: it telegraphed its intent to retaliate quite clearly, and the nature and scale of its retaliation seemed designed to appease hardliners calling for vengeance while avoiding further escalation.
• Interestingly, Jordan - which opposes the war in Gaza - was among the countries that helped Israel intercept Iran's onslaught. Amman is keen to maintain stability within its borders and avoid angering its powerful western neighbor.
• Following the attempted strikes on Israel, Iran's mission to the UN declared its retaliation mission accomplished: "the matter can be deemed concluded."
• Israel isn't deeming the matter concluded, though. Its war cabinet met yesterday to formulate a response - despite pleas from allies to "take the win" (Pres. Biden), "avoid a conflagration" (Pres. Macron), and "be smart as well as tough" (UK Foreign Secretary Lord Cameron).
• Oil prices fell after Iran's attacks, suggesting traders expected Iran's retaliation to be worse and are expecting a similarly cautious and precise response from Israel.

China, Russia, and Ukraine

• U.S. officials accused China of providing Russia with military kit - including missile engines and chips for tanks - that Russia is using in Ukraine. China denied the charge, insisting it hasn't sent weapons to "any party" and remains uninvolved in "the Ukraine crisis."
• Meanwhile, Ukraine's commander-in-chief, Oledsandr Syrsky, lamented that the situation on the front lines in eastern Ukraine is "deteriorating" as Russian forces advance against undersupplied and tired Ukrainian troops.

Myanmar

• Myanmar's Karen National Union claimed it captured Myawaddy, a strategic trading hub on the border with Thailand. It was a significant victory for the Karen's strengthening alliance of rebel groups.
• Local residents fled Myawaddy in anticipation of a counteroffensive.

Haiti

• Haiti's government said it finalized a transitional ruling council to run the country until Feb. 2026, when the council would hand over power to a new prime minister and government of its choosing.
• Many questions remain. The official announcement didn't name the new council members or clarify when they would be sworn in, and the unelected Pres. Henry - who was reluctant to stand down - is still in charge of organizing the handover.

Niger

• Thousands of Nigeriens gathered in Niamey to call for the withdrawal of around 1,000 U.S. soldiers from a $100 million U.S. drone base built under the former civilian government before the coup.
• The junta now in charge has declared the U.S. presence illegal, but so far hasn't formally evicted its troops: the Pentagon says negotiations are ongoing, although last week's arrival of Russian trainers and equipment to Niger lends new urgency to U.S. talks with the junta.